Polymarket AI Analytics Tool | Smarter Prediction Market Insights

+3.7% Israel closes its airspace by August 15? No

+2.3% Iran leadership change by August 15? No

+9.2% Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026? No

+6.8% Will Esther Charlestin win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election? No

+2.2% Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026? No

+2.4% Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31? No

+1.7% Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No

+7.8% Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by July 31? No

+24.2% Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No

+5.2% Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by July 31? No

+5.0% Iran leadership change by July 31? No

+4.7% Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by July 31? No

+16.3% Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31? No

+3.7% Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by July 31, 2026? No

+5.1% Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31? No

+4.2% SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? No

+3.6% Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No

+10.4% Will Safepoint not IPO before August 2026? Yes

+22.0% Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No

+4.2% Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No

+3.5% US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? No

+9.3% Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No

+18.3% Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No

+5.8% Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? No

+5.0% Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? No

+6.0% Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31? No

+24.2% Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No

+44.9% Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? No

+20.5% New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? No

+26.8% Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison? No

+20.3% Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? No

× Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? No

+5.6% Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than 1.0%? No

+7.9% Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Yes

+22.7% Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31? Yes

× Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? No

× Will Rhoda Magbitang win Top Chef Season 23? No

+7.9% Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes

+9.3% Israel closes its airspace by July 24? No

+4.1% Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? Yes

× Will Justin Tootla be eliminated from Top Chef: Season 23 this week? No

+2.1% Will Hunter Biden announce a Delaware Senate run by July 14? No

+16.3% Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15? No

+4.0% Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026? No

+11.7% Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? No

+12.4% Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by by June 30? No

+8.1% Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by less than 5%? Yes

+9.9% Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space by June 30? No

+5.7% Nechirvan Barzani out as Kurdistan Regional Government President? No

+2.6% Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No

+8.1% GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026? No

+2.7% Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No

+2.5% Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No

+9.7% Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Yes

× Will Baltazar Fedalizo advance from the CA-37 primary election? Yes

+7.6% Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No

+32.9% OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July? No

+4.1% Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? No

+9.9% Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? No

+6.4% Will Cboe Futures Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? No

+13.3% Will ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? No

+4.8% Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No

+4.8% Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No

+1.5% Will Iván Cepeda win between 40% and 45% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election? Yes

+9.9% Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? No

+3.8% Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? No

+6.3% Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? No

+4.9% Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%? Yes

+2.2% Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No

+8.1% Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in June? No

+3.6% Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No

+1.7% Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? No

+998.9% Will Waymo operate in 8 cities on June 30 2026? Yes

+2.6% Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? No

+2.8% Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? No

+4.5% US Treasury transactions on blockchain by June 30? No

+1.3% Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30? No

+4.3% Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? No

+8.1% Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? No

+1.3% Meek Mill gets Y Combinator funding by June 30? No

+1.6% Will Intercontinental Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? No

+10.9% Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? No

+11.1% Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No

+12.4% Nothing Ever Happens: June Nothing

+2.2% Will Israel annex any territory by June 30? No

+3.8% Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? No

+7.1% Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? No

+2.4% Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30? No

+4.4% Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by June 30? No

+8.1% US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel? No

+5.8% Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30? No

+1.6% Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? No

+3.6% Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026? No

+9.3% Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30? No

+3.1% Kurds declare independence from Iran? No

× Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? No

+8.2% U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026? No

+1.8% Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026? No

+15.6% Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? No

+35.1% Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No

+25.0% Weed rescheduled by June 30? No

+15.6% Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? No

+1.3% Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026? No

+4.1% Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? Yes

+2.5% Will Silver (SI) settle over $65 on the final trading day of June 2026? No

+2.8% Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No

+2.7% Will Russia enter Svitle by June 30? No

+1.8% Will Russia enter Shevchenko by June 30? No

+1.3% Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No

+11.1% Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? No

+8.3% Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No

+5.3% Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No

+5.4% Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? No

+4.0% Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? No

+4.1% Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by June 30, 2026? No

+1.6% Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June? No

+2.5% Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? No

+8.7% Will Elon Musk go on Joe Rogan before June 30? No

+2.5% Kash Patel out by June 30? No

+5.3% Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? No

+9.3% Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? No

+2.2% Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026? No

+60.0% Will any AI model reach 1530 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No

+2.5% Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of June 2026? No

+4.0% Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026? No

+3.8% Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? No

+9.0% Will any AI model reach 1550 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No

+17.6% Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026? No

+8.0% Will Perena launch a token by June 30, 2026? No

+5.7% Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No

+4.4% Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026? No

+3.6% Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30? No

+2.3% Will Tempo launch a token by June 30, 2026? No

+8.1% Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No

+8.1% Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by June 30? No

+1.3% Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in June 2026? No

+1.4% Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? No

+3.1% Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30? Anthropic

+3.1% Will Tread launch a token by June 30, 2026? No

+8.1% Will Turkey sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? No

+1.4% Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? No

+2.5% Will OpenAI have the third highest private market valuation on June 30? Yes

+2.9% Will Jeff Hurd be the Republican nominee for CO-03? Yes

+3.6% Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by June 30? No

+4.4% Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? No

+4.9% Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No

+4.9% Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? No

+7.0% Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No

+9.9% Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No

+17.0% Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No

+20.5% Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No

+4.0% US x China tariff agreement by June 30? No

+9.3% Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No

+6.4% Will Qatar send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No

+21.2% Ebola case in the US by June 30? No

+2.2% Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? No

+2.9% Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No

+3.5% Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No

+4.6% Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No

+2.8% Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,000 on the final trading day of June 2026? No

× Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $10B by June 30? Yes

+2.2% SAVE America Act becomes law by June 30, 2026? No

+7.0% Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? Yes

+14.9% Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30? No

+12.4% Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No

+1.7% Will Tabi launch a token by June 30, 2026? No

+1.6% Will Silver (SI) settle over $120 on the final trading day of June 2026? No

+1.5% Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2026? No

+2.0% Will Silver (SI) settle at $90-$100 in June? No

+1.8% Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June? No

+2.8% Will Silver (SI) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026? No

+2.9% Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? No

+3.5% Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? No

+4.2% Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? No

+5.8% Will Silver (SI) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026? No

+6.4% Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? No

× Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes

+5.2% Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No

× Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes

+1.7% Will OpenAI have the highest private market valuation on June 30? No

+9.9% Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026? No

+9.3% Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by June 30, 2026? No

+2.2% Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No

× Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June? No

+7.0% Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026? No

+8.1% Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No

+2.0% Netanyahu out by June 30? No

+6.3% Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No

+3.9% Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? No

+19.8% Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No

+20.6% Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No

+3.4% Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by June 30? No

+4.6% Will Trump visit Pakistan by June 30? No

+3.4% Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? No

+5.3% No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30? No

+13.0% Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No

+30.7% Meta "Mango" model released by June 30? No

+2.2% Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by June 30? No

+3.3% Katy Perry confirmed pregnant by June 30? No

+6.8% Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30? No

+5.1% Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by June 30? No

+10.5% Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No

+8.7% Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? No

+3.4% Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No

+1.6% Will Argentina dollarize by June 30, 2026? No

+2.6% Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by June 30? No

+5.7% Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by June 30? No

+2.0% Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2026? No

+3.5% Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No

+4.1% Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes

+4.1% Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No

+12.4% Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? No

+1.6% Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No

+2.8% Will Silver (SI) settle over $110 on the final trading day of June 2026? No

+4.2% Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30? No

+3.3% US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No

+3.8% Insurrection Act invoked by June 30? No

+4.0% Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No

+5.3% Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? No

+6.4% Les Wexner charged by June 30? No

+10.5% Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No

+1.3% Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? No

+1.6% Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? No

+2.2% Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No

+3.1% Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by June 30? No

+5.8% Will Silver (SI) settle over $95 on the final trading day of June 2026? No

+8.7% Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30? No

+24.2% Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No

+25.8% Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? No

+3.0% Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30? No

+4.7% Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No

+4.3% Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No

+4.1% Will Ghislaine Maxwell Testify to Congress about Epstein? No

+2.1% Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026? No

+2.6% Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? No

+1.4% Will Malaysia recognize Israel by June 30? No

+2.7% Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? No

+4.8% Will xAI release a dLLM by June 30? No

+4.7% Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No

+6.4% Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30? No

+18.3% US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No

+1.8% Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30? No

+2.7% NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026? No

+4.1% Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No

+2.6% Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30? No

+4.3% Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30? No

+4.3% Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? No

+17.6% Over $2M committed to the ALIGN public sale? No

+4.7% U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30? No

+14.9% Over $1M committed to the ALIGN public sale? No

+35.0% Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale? No

+1.5% Will Elon Musk be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No

+2.0% Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? No

+1.8% Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No

+2.3% Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No

+3.4% Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30? No

+2.1% Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No

+3.7% State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30? No

+2.8% Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? No

+3.1% Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No

+3.6% Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? No

+6.2% Will Steven Tisch be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No

+12.4% Another Elon baby by June 30? No

+12.4% Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026? No

+16.3% Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No

+1.8% Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30? No

+1.6% Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes

+2.2% Lecornu out as French PM by June 30, 2026? No

+2.4% Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes

+19.0% Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes

+2.7% Will Pakistan recognize Israel by June 30? No

+2.1% Another Canada election called by June 30? No

+1.7% Will Ubisoft announce bankruptcy by June 30? No

+2.4% Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? No

+2.5% Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30? No

+7.0% Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No

+9.9% Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No

+14.9% Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? No

+2.5% Will JD Vance enter Iran by June 30? No

+2.5% Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30? No

+3.6% Tucker Carlson federally charged? No

+3.7% Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30? No

+5.1% Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No

+11.1% Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No

+17.6% Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No

+1.4% Will Bill Cosby be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No

+1.7% Will Noam Chomsky be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No

+2.0% Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No

+2.3% Will Deepak Chopra be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No

+2.3% Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? No

+2.4% Jimmy Lai released by June 30? No

+2.6% DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30? No

+4.0% Will Kanye West visit the UK by June 30? No

+2.8% Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026? No

+2.9% Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No

+5.3% Will Qatar recognize Israel by June 30? No

+2.9% Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No

+3.1% Peru General Election invalidated by June 30? No

+4.9% Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? No

+4.7% Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30? No

+1.7% Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30? No

+1.4% Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? No

+2.1% Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30 No

+2.0% Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30? No

+2.5% Will Syria recognize Israel by June 30? No

+2.2% Fetterman leaves the Democrats by June 30? No

+3.3% Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $50 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes

+1.6% Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No

+2.8% Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30? No

+2.7% Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $52 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes

+2.7% Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? No

+2.1% Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? No

+3.1% Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $56 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes

+2.8% Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No

+2.8% Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? No

+3.3% Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? No

+3.4% Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No

+4.2% NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No

+4.1% Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026? No

+8.6% Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? No

+1.5% Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30? No

+1.6% Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No

+1.8% Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? No

+2.0% Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? No

+2.3% Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No

+2.9% Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? No

+4.5% Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No

+2.8% Mike Johnson out as Speaker by June 30? No

+4.9% Ukraine coup attempt by June 30? No

+3.7% Will Xi meet with Takaichi by June 30, 2026? No

+4.0% European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? No

+4.3% Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No

+10.4% Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30? No

+1.7% Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives by June 30? No

+1.3% Will Russia enter Kharkiv by June 30? No

+1.3% Anthropic CEO arrested? No

+2.0% Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30? No

+1.5% Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? No

+1.6% Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? No

+1.6% Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? No

+1.7% Chirayu Rana divorced? No

+1.7% Will Russia enter Sumy by June 30? No

+3.5% Bill Gates charged by June 30? No

+3.6% Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? No

+6.0% Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? No

+4.3% Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? No

+2.0% McDonald's CEO out by June 30? No

+1.4% Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No

+2.4% Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30? No

+2.6% Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? No

+2.8% 100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30? No

+11.7% Iran coup attempt by June 30? No

+11.7% Iran leadership change by June 30? No

+1.6% Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? No

+1.6% Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? No

+2.0% EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? No

+2.0% MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026? No

+2.1% Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No

+2.4% Will Nansen launch a token by June 30, 2026? No

+2.7% Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No

+3.0% Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? No

+4.7% Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026? No

+3.3% Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No

+11.1% Will Loopscale launch a token by June 30, 2026? No

+10.5% Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? No

+16.3% Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? No

+16.3% Will Silver (SI) settle over $100 on the final trading day of June 2026? No

+17.0% Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No

× Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026? Yes

+4.6% Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? No

+7.5% Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No

+2.2% Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No

+2.6% Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? No

+20.3% Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? No

+2.5% Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? No

+3.7% Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes

+5.7% Will Mark Baisley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Colorado? Yes

+4.8% Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026? No

+21.2% Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? No

+10.3% Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes

+16.4% Will Freddie Mac not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes

+4.0% Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? No

+5.3% Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30? No

+7.0% Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30? No

+7.9% Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30? No

+11.7% Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30? No

+5.7% Russian strike on Poland by June 30? No

+5.8% Will Harvey Weinstein be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No

+3.8% Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? No

+6.8% Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? No

+15.6% Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election? No

× Will Silver (SI) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes

+25.9% Will Waymo launch in London by June 30 2026? No

+6.4% Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No

+29.0% Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No

+5.4% Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? No

+5.5% Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? No

+9.8% Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? No

+15.3% Will Daylight launch a token by June 30, 2026? No

+19.8% Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? No

+29.8% Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,200 on the final trading day of June 2026? No

+66.7% Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No

+40.8% Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No

+10.2% Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $56-$63 in June? No

+4.7% Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30? No

+18.0% Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No

+5.3% Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No

+9.3% Trump out as President by June 30? No

+17.0% U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? No

+36.1% Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? No

× Will Waymo launch in Denver by June 30 2026? Yes

× No one announced as next James Bond? No

+10.5% Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes

+25.8% Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? No

+1.9% Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes

+2.6% Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes

+11.7% Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June? No

+1.7% Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes

+2.8% Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes

+2.6% Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $345 end of June? Yes

+2.0% Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $168 in June? No

+11.1% Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in June? No

+1.3% Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No

+3.2% Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? No

+3.3% Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No

+8.7% Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of June? Yes

+3.0% Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in June? No

+6.2% Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in June? No

+6.2% Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? No

+5.7% Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in June? No

+13.0% Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? No

+7.0% Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes

+4.5% Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No

+7.0% Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No

+2.7% Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? No

+5.0% Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? No

+1.7% Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No

+6.4% Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? No

+115.1% Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes

+4.7% Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? Yes

+1.7% Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? No

+6.3% Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? No

+6.8% Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? No

+7.1% Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? No

+2.2% Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary by less than 5%? Yes

× Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? No

+3.0% Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 5–10%? Yes

+8.5% Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No

+2.4% Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? No

× US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No

× Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? No

× Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No

+14.3% Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorney General by June 30? No

+2.9% U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by May 31? No

+1.4% Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) win fewer than 21 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election? No

× Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No

+6.5% Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes

× Will any xAI Grok model score at least 30% on the FrontierMath Exam? No

× Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? No

× Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? No

+138.1% Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? Yes

+1.7% Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? No

+8.7% Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Yes

+2.6% Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? No

+14.2% Will Alex Pelbath be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? No

+2.2% Will Ritchie Torres be the Democratic nominee for NY-15? Yes

+3.7% Will Larry Hogan win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election? No

+3.9% Will Steve Hershey win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election? No

+18.3% Will Nicholas Sciretta be the Democratic nominee for NY-04? No

+36.1% Will Laura Gillen be the Democratic nominee for NY-04? Yes

+65.6% Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No

+4.7% Will Christopher Bouchat win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election? No

+2.7% Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No

+8.1% Will Bruce Blakeman win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary election? Yes

+9.7% Will Renovación Popular (RP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? No

+3.4% Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026? No

+9.3% Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No

+3.9% US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No

+9.3% Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No

+4.7% Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? No

+4.7% Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? No

+9.9% US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No

+1.3% No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? Yes

× US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No

+102.0% Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 meeting? No

+2.4% Will Matt Pinnell be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? No

+3.9% US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? No

+4.7% Will Kyle Sweetser be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? No

+1.4% Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No

+2.6% Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? Yes

+4.5% Will Kevin Hern be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Yes

+7.0% Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Yes

+13.0% Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes

+17.6% Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? No

+3.0% Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes

+2.9% Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 15? No

+3.2% Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? No

+1.1% Will Trevor Merrell advance from the CA-04 primary election? No

+2.0% GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? No

+7.5% Another GTA VI trailer released by June 15? No

+2.6% Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes

+8.0% US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No

+3.1% Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? No

+5.8% Starmer out by June 15, 2026? No

+5.9% Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? Yes

+2.3% US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? No

+7.4% Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 7? No

+1.2% Israel closes its airspace by June 13? No

+1.9% Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Yes

+46.0% Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? No

+9.9% Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 12, 2026? No

+3.5% Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on June 12? No

+4.2% Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 25% and 30%? Yes

+1.4% Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,200,000 and 1,500,000 voters? Yes

× Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? No

+13.6% Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more? No

+3.6% Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? No

+6.1% Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? No

+8.1% US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? No

+19.8% Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Democratic Party? No

+2.3% Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? Yes

+3.2% Will Ritesh Tandon advance from the CA-17 primary? Yes

+1.2% Will Saikat Chakrabarti receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary? No

+3.8% Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? No

+4.7% Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Yes

+3.0% Will Ro Khanna advance from the CA-17 primary? Yes

+5.9% Will Kyle Langford advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? No

+2.7% Will Nicholas Thompson advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? No

+4.4% Will Sophia Brink advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? No

+5.2% Will Kyle Freeman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in North Carolina? No

+3.1% Will Nicki Minaj advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? No

+10.5% Will Paul LePage be the Republican Nominee for ME-02? Yes

+29.0% Will Ha Phan advance from the CA-17 primary? No

+10.3% Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 8? No

+20.5% Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? No

+1.6% Will Solana dip to $60 June 1-7? No

+1.6% Will "Scary Movie" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? No

+2.2% US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? No

+10.5% US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? No

+7.2% Will Partido Popular (PP) win 53-55 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election? Yes

+7.2% Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election by between 50% and 60%? No

+36.1% Will The Left (Levica) be part of the next Government of Slovenia? No

+4.6% Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? No

× Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? No

+14.9% US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? No

+29.0% Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in May? No

+17.0% Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? No

+14.3% Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Yes

+1.9% Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in May? No

+2.6% Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in May? No

+2.4% Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in May? No

+2.6% Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in May? No

+8.1% MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? No

+1.6% Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections? Yes

+2.8% Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in May? No

+6.4% Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections? No

+13.1% Services Down Parlay No

+2.7% Will Billy Mawhiney be the Democratic Nominee for SD-AL? No

+13.6% Nothing Ever Happens: May Nothing

+2.6% Will Rob Sand win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary election? Yes

+6.9% Will Cory Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Jersey? Yes

+4.1% Will Ashley Hinson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Iowa? Yes

+8.1% Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by May 31? No

+5.8% Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31? No

+9.9% Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31? No

+5.8% Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? No

+1.6% Will a hurricane form by May 31? No

+2.5% Named storm forms before hurricane season? No

× MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? No

× MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? No

+5.3% Will Claude go down 12+ times in May? No

+2.5% Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31? No

+3.9% Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? No

+1.2% Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? No

+3.1% Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 31? No

+4.4% Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31? No

+11.1% Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026? No

+20.5% Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31? No

+1.5% Epstein suicide note released by May 31? No

+13.6% US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? No

+2.7% Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by May 31, 2026? No

+1.4% Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? No

+3.1% Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? No

+2.3% Labour leadership election scheduled by May 31? No

+2.8% Kash Patel out by May 31? No

+5.5% Will Russia capture Pokrovka by May 31? No

+5.8% Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election? No

+1.6% Ruben Gallego out as US Senator by May 31? No

+4.3% Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? No

+7.0% Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? No

+1.3% Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? No

+2.6% Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by May 31? No

+1.9% Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? No

+2.1% Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? No

+2.8% Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? No

+2.8% Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? No

+2.9% Starmer out by May 31, 2026? No

+3.8% Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026? No

+4.7% Will Russia enter Myrne by May 31, 2026? No

+22.0% Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $690b on May 31? Yes

+12.4% Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? No

+1.6% Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by May 31? No

+1.7% Will Comey smile in his mugshot? No

+7.1% Will Qatar send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? No

+3.3% Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May 2026? No

+2.3% US bank failure by May 31? No

+4.5% GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? No

+12.4% Israel closes its airspace by May 31? No

+19.8% Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? No

+5.5% Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31? No

+1.7% Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? No

+2.6% Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by May 31, 2026? No

+3.5% Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? No

+5.8% Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? No

+5.8% Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? No

+7.5% Evo Morales arrested by May 31? No

+1.8% Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? No

+1.9% Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31? No

+2.7% Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31? No

+3.6% Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? No

+2.5% Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? No

+6.4% Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by May 31, 2026? No

+4.1% Will Russia capture Sofiivka by May 31? No

+6.8% Will Russia capture Myropillia by May 31? No

+6.4% Will Russia enter Khatnie by May 31, 2026? No

+4.8% Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? No

+11.9% Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by May 31? No

+6.5% Will Russia enter Svitle by May 31? No

+9.1% Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? No

+14.3% US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? No

+1.3% Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? No

+1.8% Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? No

+2.5% Will Russia enter Dobropillia by May 31? No

+11.4% Cory Mills out as US Rep by May 31? No

+10.5% Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? No

+1.3% Will Bahrain send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? No

+1.5% Will Kuwait send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? No

+1.8% Will Saudi Arabia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? No

+1.3% Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026? No

+1.5% Will Oman send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? No

+1.8% Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? No

+2.6% Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? No

+3.1% Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? No

+3.2% Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by May 31? No

+4.7% Will the United Arab Emirates send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? No

+4.2% Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31? No

+4.5% Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? No

+6.3% Will Russia capture Toretske by May 31, 2026? No

+4.9% US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? No

+11.7% Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by May 31? No

+11.7% Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? No

+15.6% Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by May 31? No

+13.6% Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? No

+1.5% Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? No

+1.5% Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? No

+1.9% Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? No

+6.4% Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2026? No

+3.3% Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? No

+5.5% Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in May 2026? No

+6.4% Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in May 2026? No

+6.0% Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? No

+7.5% Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? No

+12.6% Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31? No

+8.1% Iran leadership change by May 31? No

+12.4% Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? No

+13.0% US x China tariff agreement by May 31? No

+14.3% Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? No

+16.3% Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? No

+8.1% Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? No

+2.4% Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? No

+2.9% Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? No

+9.3% Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? No

+5.7% Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? No

+61.3% Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? No

+5.2% Iran closes its airspace by May 27? No

+5.4% Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 Maltese general election? Yes

+1.1% Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May? No

+1.7% Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? No

+1.1% Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 in May? No

+1.2% Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? No

+4.0% Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in May? No

+8.1% Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May? No

+1.9% Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31? No

+44.9% Pooh Shiesty charged by May 31? Yes

+46.0% Nothing Ever Happens: March Nothing

+1.2% Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May? No

× Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? No

× Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? No

+40.8% Will Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027? Yes

+3.4% Will Gregor Heise be the Republican Nominee for TX-30? No

+3.7% Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision? Yes

+2.9% Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election? Yes

+8.1% US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? No

+17.0% Israel closes its airspace by May 24? No

+9.9% Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? No

+2.8% US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? No

+4.2% Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China? No

+5.3% Will Trump announce the release of detained Americans? No

× Major US official out by May 31? No

+7.6% Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026? Yes

+1.6% Iran closes its airspace by May 21? No

× Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel? No

+4.3% Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? Yes

+2.7% Will Stephen Heidt win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election? No

+18.3% Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky? No

+4.2% Will Jim Risch be the Republican nominee for Senate in Idaho? Yes

+8.1% Will Tommy Tuberville win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election? Yes

+53.8% Did a crypto hedge fund blow up? No

× Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026? Yes

+169.2% Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%? No

+18.3% Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%? Yes

+39.9% Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? No

+4.5% Starmer out by May 15, 2026? No

+21.2% Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026? No

+2.4% Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? No

+12.5% Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? Yes

+10.3% Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 15, 2026? Yes

+3.1% Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? No

+13.3% Cerebras IPO before 2027? Yes

+3.1% Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 Special Election by less than 20%Analilia Mejia No

+8.1% Will 49 or fewer senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee? No

+57.5% Will Luxembourg advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? No

+65.3% Will Trump visit China by May 15? Yes

× Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve? No

+13.1% Will Elizabeth Warren vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve? No

+3.5% Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? No

+18.3% Will Zachary Shrewsbury be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia? No

+22.0% Will Trump visit China by May 31? Yes

+6.4% Will Brinker Harding be the Republican nominee for NE-02? Yes

× Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? No

+50.4% Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? No

× Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? Yes

+12.4% Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? No

× Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? No

+6.5% Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026? No

+9.6% Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? Yes

+4.3% Will Amelia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 2025? No

+24.2% Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? Yes

+12.9% Trump's mail-in voting executive order blocked in April? No

+2.3% Will US crude oil reserves fall to 200M by May 1? No

+6.4% Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election? Yes

+8.1% Will Zendaya wear a wedding or engagement ring at the Met Gala? No

+37.0% Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala? No

+9.3% Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? No

× Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026? No

+5.3% AWS service disrupted by April 30? No

+3.7% Tech Layoffs Up or Down in Q1, 2026? Up

+5.3% Will Nate and Cassie marry in Euphoria: Season 3? Yes

+41.8% Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? No

+17.6% Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? No

× Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election? No

+19.8% Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3? No

+2.2% Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.00 (LOW) by April 30, 2026? No

+52.3% Will Pacto Histórico win 24-26 seats in the Colombian Senate in the 2026 Colombian parliamentary election? Yes

+7.5% Will the Senate pass the SAVE America Act (H.R. 7296)? No

+23.5% Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? No

+135.3% MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Yes

+8.3% Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in April 2026? No

+15.6% Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $670b on April 30? No

+2.1% Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by April 30? No

+2.2% Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026? No

+2.1% Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? No

+2.1% Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? No

+4.9% Will Trump disparage Pope Leo XIV by April 30? No

+4.7% Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? No

+8.8% Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30? No

× Will President Trump sign 4 pieces of legislation into law in April? Yes

+5.8% Israel military action on Damascus by April 30, 2026? No

+2.1% Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? No

+2.2% Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown? No

+3.1% Will Bad Bunny have a #1 hit in April? No

+3.1% Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30? No

+3.2% Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $360 end of April? Yes

+3.8% Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026? No

+4.1% Trump ballroom project unblocked by April 30? No

+4.9% Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30? No

+11.1% Kash Patel out by April 30? No

× Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026? Yes

× Will SpaceX have exactly 12 launches in April? No

+2.1% Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026? No

+58.7% Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026? No

+4.2% Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by April 30? No

+2.2% Will Marco Rubio visit China by April 30, 2026? No

+2.8% Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by April 30? No

+3.6% Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? No

+2.2% Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in April? No

+12.4% Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $3.00 end of April? Yes

+13.0% Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? No

+2.9% Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? No

+3.1% Will Russia capture Havrylivka by April 30, 2026? No

+4.7% Masoud Pezeshkian out by April 30? No

+5.4% Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? No

+7.2% Will SpaceX have exactly 16 launches in April? No

+3.7% Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? No

+3.5% Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by April 30? No

+9.7% Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster? No

+5.4% Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? No

+7.5% U.S. Congress member out over Epstein files by April 30? No

+43.9% Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? No

+3.3% KRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30? No

+2.6% Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Yes

× Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026? Yes

+24.2% Will SpaceX have less than or equal to 11 launches in April? No

+10.4% Will Apple dip to $216 in April? No

+14.9% Will Meta have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? No

× Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? No

+25.0% Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes

+27.4% Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes

+13.0% Will NVIDIA dip to $160 in April? No

+30.7% Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? No

+14.2% Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 1.0%? No

+2.5% Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference? Yes

+2.4% Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)? Yes

+4.3% Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? No

× Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? No

× Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30? No

+2.6% Trump re-sues WSJ by April 27? No

+17.8% Will PLC win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election? Yes

× DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? No

× GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? No

+3.0% Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? No

+2.0% Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 21? No

+3.3% Will the DHS shutdown end between April 17-20, 2026? No

+15.6% Octra FDV above $200M one day after launch? No

× Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? No

+4.4% Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? Yes

× Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 6, 2026? No

+3.3% Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? Yes

+20.5% Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? No

+7.2% Will Waymo launch in Miami by June 30 2026? Yes

+3.7% Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? No

+2.1% Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14? No

× Will Starmer say "U-Turn" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? No

+27.4% Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 31, 2026? No

+7.5% Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more? Yes

× Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026? No

+11.1% Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? Yes

× Military action against Iran ends by May 31, 2026? No

+3.1% Will Justin Bieber drop out as a Coachella 2026 Headliner? No

+40.4% Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 56%? No

+77.1% Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 59% and 60%? No

+4.7% Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the April Meeting? Yes

+21.2% Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 55%? No

+20.0% Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%? No

+190.3% Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March? No

× Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% or more in March? No

+11.4% Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in March 2026? No

× US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? No

× Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No

+25.8% Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Yes

× Clavicular charged again by June 30? No

+24.2% Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? No

+92.3% Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? No

× Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 21, 2026? No

+93.1% Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m? No

× Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be between 65% and 70%? Yes

+4.0% Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31? No

+3.8% Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win 25-29 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election? Yes

× Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be between 70% and 75%? No

+4.0% Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? No

+5.7% Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31? No

+149.7% Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March? Yes

× Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026? No

+38.2% Will Iran strike the United Kingdom by March 31? No

× Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by March 31? Yes

+41.8% Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%? No

+9.9% Will the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be between 14.2m & 14.4m square kilometers? Yes

+41.8% Will Iran strike Bahrain again in March? Yes

+3.4% Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%? No

+7.0% Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 29, 2026? Yes

+5.7% Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by March 31? No

+11.1% Will USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by March 31? No

+8.1% Will the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) close above 4750 on the final trading day of Q1 2026? Yes

+2.8% Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 29, 2026? No

✓ Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in March? No

✓ Will Rami leave Babymonster? No

+3.5% Will John Fetterman vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026? No

+5.3% Iran leadership change by March 31? No

+2.3% Another GTA VI trailer released by March 31? No

+4.8% Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? No

+11.7% Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? No

✓ Robinhood launches prediction market through MIAXdx by March 31? No

+2.7% Will Apple release a new version of the Apple TV by March 31? No

+2.8% Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by March 31? No

+13.0% Avatar 4 greenlit by March 31? No

✓ Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? No

✓ Will Russia enter Serhiivka by March 31? No

✓ Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026? No

+2.5% Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March? No

+4.7% Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31? No

× Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31? Yes

+2.3% Will another country recognize Somaliland by March 31? No

+2.8% Will gas hit (Low) $3.15 by March 31? No

+3.6% Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31? No

+5.8% Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31? No

+10.5% Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? No

✓ Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31? No

+2.3% Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March? No

+6.1% Claude 4.7 released by March 31? No

+6.4% Will Russia capture Bilytske by March 31, 2026? No

+19.0% Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? No

✓ Will India strike Pakistan by March 31? No

✓ NATO Article 5 by March 31? No

+2.6% Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? No

+7.1% Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31? No

+9.3% Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? No

+40.6% Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026? Yes

✓ Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? No

+2.2% Will Oro launch a token by March 31, 2026? No

+3.1% Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in March? No

+3.8% Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by March 31? No

+2.4% Nothing Ever Happens: Ilhan Omar Nothing

+2.9% Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by March 31? No

+3.4% Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? No

+7.6% Will Bernie Sanders vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026? No

+11.7% US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? No

+22.0% Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? No

+6.3% Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? No

+6.5% Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by March 31, 2026? No

+3.6% Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? No

+22.4% Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $4.00 end of March? Yes

+13.0% Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31? Yes

+2.1% Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $180 end of March? No

+7.5% Will Meta (META) close above $560 end of March? Yes

+17.0% Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31? No

× Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026? No

✓ Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026? Yes

✓ Trump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026? Yes

✓ Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? No

+13.0% Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 24, 2026? Yes

+16.3% Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March? Yes

× Will Trump say "Easter" in March? No

+11.6% Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 20, 2026? Yes

× Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,400 (LOW) in March 2026? No

✓ Will Iran strike Iraq again in March? Yes

+8.8% Will Heather McPherson win the Canadian NDP Leadership election? No

+18.3% Will Trump say "Rigged" or "Stolen" this week? (March 29) Yes

× Will "Oil" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29) Yes

+2.1% Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on March 26? No

+58.7% Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be less than or equal to 2.4%? No

+2.2% Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 24, 2026? No

+2.7% Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? No

+3.4% Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 24? No

+3.8% Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on March 23? No

+7.5% Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m? No

× Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8.5m and 10m? No

✓ Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (March 22) No

+9.3% Will XRP dip to $1.40 March 16-22? Yes

+2.2% Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 22? Yes

+3.5% Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 19, 2026? No

✓ Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary be between 2,200,000 and 2,400,000 voters? No

+2.7% Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? No

× Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 6.00% and 6.50%? No

✓ Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 9, 2026? No

+124.7% Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Yes