This prediction was committed to a SHA-256 hash at call time. Anyone can verify the call was not changed after the fact.
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%? | No | 2025-12-31
2a2aadc6
Verifying…
echo -n "Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%? | No | 2025-12-31" | shasum -a 256 | cut -c1-8Consensus from credible sources like Wikipedia and La Prensa reports turnout at 60.19% (3.926M votes / 6.523M eligible), clearly outside 58-59%, so market resolves No regardless of minor disputes or ongoing wait for explicit CNE confirmation. No price at 83¢ (now ~70¢) offers strong edge with near-100% true probability, low risk even with recount, and resolution imminent or by 2026-12-31 defaulting No. Analyst correctly identifies mispricing in this 50/50 trap bracket post-election.
The recommended trade 'Buy No' is no longer actionable because the market's trading ended on 2025-12-31, and the current date is 2026-03-26, making it impossible to enter new positions. Although the election occurred on 2025-11-30 with reported turnout of 60.19% (not 58-59%), confirming No resolution is likely, the edge has closed and the opportunity is stale. The market remains unresolved due to disputes but will resolve No based on consensus reporting.
The 2025 Honduran general election has already concluded, and official data from the National Electoral Council (CNE) confirms a turnout of 60.19%. Since 60.19% is outside the 58%-59% range, the 'No' outcome is a mathematical certainty based on the official results reported by credible sources like La Prensa and Radio HRN.
+2 more open picks · full 3-judge reasoning · Telegram premium channel.
Subscribe Now