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Will Starmer say "U-Turn" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | No | 2026-04-01
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Verifying…
echo -n "Will Starmer say "U-Turn" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | No | 2026-04-01" | shasum -a 256 | cut -c1-8The market remains open with the next PMQs on April 15, 2026, but the analysis's data is stale: volume has risen to $76k and Yes price to ~45% (No ~55%), reducing the edge. Starmer has used 'U-turn' in PMQs before (e.g., accusing opposition of 'screeching U-turn' on March 11), contradicting 'extremely rarely'; true P(Yes) likely ~30-50%, not <=20% required for >=80% confidence on No. Crowd pricing with higher volume suggests no actionable mispricing.
The market remains open until May 31, 2026, and the next PMQs after the market's opening on March 26 is April 15 due to Easter recess (March 26 to April 13), which is within the resolution window. Analysis of Hansard transcripts from multiple recent PMQs confirms Keir Starmer does not use the term 'U-Turn' himself; it is exclusively opposition rhetoric criticizing the government. With Yes priced around 36-45% but true probability <10%, No offers a substantial edge (>80% true probability) with low risk and short time to resolution.
The AI analyst's claim that Starmer 'extremely rarely' uses the term 'U-Turn' is factually incorrect based on recent events. In the PMQs held on March 11, 2026, Starmer repeatedly used the phrase 'mother of all U-turns' and 'screeching U-turn' to attack Kemi Badenoch's stance on Iran. The analyst's logic that the term is only used by the opposition is refuted by these recent high-profile transcripts.
Correction: {'trade': 'Buy Yes at $0.36', 'category': 'mispricing', 'reasoning': "Recent PMQs (March 11, 2026) show Starmer has adopted 'U-turn' as a primary rhetorical weapon against Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage regarding their shifting positions on the Iran conflict. Given that this conflict and the associated political attacks are ongoing, there is a very high probability (well above 36%) that he will repeat this successful attack line in the next session.", 'risk': "The primary risk is if the geopolitical situation de-escalates significantly before the next PMQs, or if Starmer's advisors pivot his rhetorical strategy to a different buzzword."}
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