Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?

UK decision-makers (Starmer, MoD, Royal Navy) show clear pattern of pre-positioning HMS Dragon for a *potential* post-ceasefire mission only, with all official statements emphasizing contingency, defensiveness, and no immediate transit commitment. No incentive or demonstrated behavior supports rushing an actual narrow-strait transit in the final 6 days amid ongoing risks. Base rate of sudden allied transits without prior coordination or de-escalation is near-zero; recent actions align with stalling, not execution.

Rules require actual UK warship transit through the narrowest section of the Strait (confirmed officially or by overwhelming consensus) between market open (May 6) and May 31 deadline. All reporting shows only pre-positioning of HMS Dragon and preparations (e.g., mine-hunting assets) conditional on future ceasefire; no transit has occurred or is scheduled imminently. With 6 days left and no qualifying event, default-No applies unambiguously; this is a consensus No hold with no rule-based flip possible.

No at 97.7% is a clear consensus hold with $198k volume since May 6 and only modest 1d/1w drift lower on Yes; no smart-money whales on either side (neutral signal) and no order-book or flow data showing aggressive buying of the 3% Yes. Microstructure is consistent with near-certain No through the 6-day window — thin liquidity at the low-probability tail is normal and does not indicate hidden edge.