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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 2026-04-30
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echo -n "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 2026-04-30" | shasum -a 256 | cut -c1-8Current web search confirms severe disruption in Strait of Hormuz traffic due to ongoing crisis and recent ceasefire that has not led to recovery; latest reports show 7-day averages around 10 or less, with Iran reportedly limiting to 15 ships/day max, far below the 60 threshold. No data indicates any spike to 60 since market open, and experts predict weeks/months for normalcy, making Yes highly unlikely by Apr 30 (true prob No >80%). Buy No at 66% offers strong edge given high-volume market's residual optimism post-ceasefire.
Current IMF Portwatch data shows Strait of Hormuz transit calls remain extremely low (daily averages around 5-10, far below 60), with no 7-day MA >=60 since market open on March 9, 2026, due to ongoing Iran conflict effects despite a recent ceasefire. However, recent developments like US warships transiting for mine-clearing and ceasefire indicate a plausible path to recovery by April 30, aligning with the market's 34% Yes pricing from sophisticated traders with $6.5M volume. True probability of No is approximately 70%, below the required 80% threshold for near-certain trades, making the 40% edge claim overstated and not actionable.
Current data from IMF PortWatch and specialized trackers like HormuzMonitor.com confirm that as of mid-April 2026, the 7-day moving average of transit calls is in the single digits (approx. 8), which is 95% below the pre-crisis baseline of ~153. The market requires the 7-day average to hit 60 by April 30, but major shipping lines (Maersk, MSC) have suspended operations and war risk insurance was cancelled on March 5, making a 750% increase in traffic within 18 days virtually impossible under current blockade conditions.
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