Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?

Web searches confirm that Starship Flight 12 has not launched as of April 28, 2026, with all sources indicating a NET early May 2026 target after delays from March/April windows. The market rules state it resolves 'No' if the twelfth launch has not occurred by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, making 'No' resolution certain with only two days left and no imminent launch announcements. No is priced at 98%, providing a high-certainty consensus hold with a 2% edge over a very short timeframe, meeting the criteria for approval.

Starship Flight Test 12 has not launched as of April 28, 2026, with the latest flight being Flight 11 in October 2025 and Flight 12 targeted for early May per Wikipedia, Reuters, and other sources. The market explicitly resolves to 'No' if the twelfth launch does not occur by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, leaving insufficient time for a launch given current delays and lack of recent announcements from SpaceX or Elon Musk. Buying No at 98¢ captures a high-certainty edge on a near-consensus position with resolution imminent.

Web searches confirm Starship Flight Test 12 has not launched as of April 28, 2026, with the latest flight being Flight 11 in October 2025 and Flight 12 NET early May 2026 per SpaceX updates, Wikipedia, and tracking sites. The Polymarket page verifies the market is open, rules mandate resolution to No if no launch by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and current preparations (e.g., static fires) do not indicate an imminent launch within the remaining ~2 days. At 98% No pricing, this rides near-consensus with a verifiable ~2% edge to a near-certain No resolution.