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Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve? | No | 2026-06-30
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echo -n "Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve? | No | 2026-06-30" | shasum -a 256 | cut -c1-8Tillis has consistently stated since January 2026 that he will oppose all Fed nominees, including Warsh, until the DOJ investigation into Powell is resolved, and recent reports as of April 13 confirm he is still blocking final approval while the probe faces court blocks. Despite this, the market prices No at only 14%, indicating the crowd expects resolution or a change in position before the June 30 deadline, and the true probability of No (Tillis votes No or no vote) is well below the 80% threshold required for approval. The analysis overstates the edge without near-certain proof against the informed crowd pricing.
The market is severely mispriced. The web search results from [foxnews.com](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gop-senator-vows-block-trumps-fed-chair-pick-unless-powell-probe-dropped), [tillis.senate.gov](https://www.tillis.senate.gov/2026/1/tillis-statement-on-the-nomination-of-kevin-warsh-for-federal-reserve-chairman), and [cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/30/fed-warsh-tillis-trump-powell-doj.html) confirm Senator Thom Tillis's unequivocal public statement that he 'will oppose the confirmation of any Federal Reserve nominee, including for the position of Chairman, until the DOJ’s inquiry into Chairman Powell is fully and transparently resolved.' This is a binding condition that makes a 'Yes' vote by him before the June 30, 2026 deadline highly improbable unless the DOJ probe is resolved, which is not indicated in current reports. The 'No' side priced at 14% offers a significant edge.
The market is severely mispriced at 86% Yes. Senator Tillis has made multiple explicit, public statements vowing to oppose any Fed nominee until the DOJ probe into Jerome Powell is resolved, stating 'there is nothing he could say that would change my position.' Since the probe is ongoing and unlikely to conclude by the June 30 deadline, Tillis will almost certainly vote No, or the nomination will stall/withdraw, all of which resolve to 'No'. Buying No at 14% offers a massive, near-certain edge.
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