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Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster? | No | 2026-04-30
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echo -n "Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster? | No | 2026-04-30" | shasum -a 256 | cut -c1-8Starship Flight Test 12 has not launched and is scheduled no earlier than early April 2026, after the market's end date of March 31, 2026, ensuring resolution to No since no qualifying twelfth launch will occur in time. The AI analyst correctly identifies that buying No at around 91-92¢ provides a significant edge on a near-100% probability outcome with resolution imminent and low risk.
The analyst overstates the probability of 'No' as nearly 100% without supporting evidence, but Flight 12 is expected in early April 2026, before the April 30 deadline, and SpaceX has prior successful catches. Market prices at 91% No with $201k volume accurately reflect risks for the new Block 3 booster, rendering the 9% edge implausible and not actionable. Web searches confirm the flight is imminent, not impossible.
As of March 28, 2026, SpaceX has not yet conducted Flight Test 12. Recent reports from March 12, 2026, indicate that Flight Test 11 (Starship V3) has slipped to April 2026, making it physically impossible for Flight Test 12 to occur before the market's hard deadline of April 30, 2026. Per the formal rules, if the twelfth launch has not occurred by this date, the market must resolve to 'No', making the current 9% 'Yes' price a clear mispricing of a near-certain 'No' resolution.
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