Will John Fetterman vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?

The original analysis incorrectly assumes Fetterman will vote Yea on a roll-call vote on passage based on his procedural votes to advance; however, the Senate passed H.R.7147 (Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026, as amended) by voice vote on March 27, 2026, which does not qualify as a roll-call vote under the market rules. No roll-call vote on passage has occurred, and with the House rejecting the Senate version and Congress nearing recess, none is likely before the March 31 deadline.

Correction: {'trade': 'Buy No at $0.97', 'reasoning': 'Market rules require a roll-call vote on passage in the Senate, which has not happened—passage was by voice vote per official Congress.gov records. Procedural cloture votes where Fetterman voted Yea do not qualify. Likely resolution to No via no qualifying vote or CR (excluded). True P(No) ≈99%, edge ~2-3% with minimal time risk.', 'risk': 'Unforeseen roll-call vote on a qualifying DHS appropriations bill before March 31 where Fetterman votes Yea, though improbable given current status and recess.'}

The AI analyst's recommendation to buy Yes is incorrect because Fetterman's vote to advance (cloture on H.R.7147) does not qualify as the required first roll-call vote on passage; H.R.7147 is a continuing resolution (CR) explicitly excluded by market rules, and its Senate passage was by voice vote, not roll-call. No roll-call vote on passage of the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026 (or qualifying package) has occurred, and with the CR passing yesterday, none is likely before the March 31 deadline.

Correction: {'trade': 'Buy No at $0.97', 'reasoning': "Market rules require a roll-call vote on passage of the specific DHS Appropriations Act (not CR), which hasn't happened per Senate records (recent roll-calls were only cloture/motions to proceed, all failed); voice vote passage of excluded CR H.R.7147 on March 27 doesn't qualify, and deadline is March 31 with no further votes scheduled or needed. True probability of No resolution is near 100% as no qualifying event occurred and unlikely now.", 'risk': 'A surprise roll-call vote on a qualifying DHS appropriations bill occurs before March 31 and Fetterman votes Yea, though improbable given recent CR passage averting shutdown.'}