Will Iran strike Iraq again in March?

The AI analyst's finding is incorrect due to erroneous market dates (actual open date is March 7, 2026, end date March 31, 2026) and overlooks a qualifying Iranian ballistic missile strike on Iraq (Erbil area) on March 24, 2026, explicitly claimed by Iranian Army Statement No. 42, with impacts confirmed by consensus reporting from ISW, Reuters, FDD, KRG Peshmerga Ministry (6 killed, 30 injured), causing damage on Iraqi soil.

Correction: {'trade': 'Buy Yes at $0.90', 'reasoning': 'The March 24 strike qualifies perfectly: ballistic missiles (explicitly included in rules) launched by Iranian Army, explicitly claimed, impacted Iraqi territory (Peshmerga base near Erbil) with casualties, confirmed by multiple credible sources including ISW, Reuters, FDD, and KRG officials; within time window (Mar 7-31); no exclusions apply. True resolution probability near 100%, providing ~10% edge at current 90% pricing with only days left.', 'risk': "Oracle might narrowly interpret 'ground-to-ground' as non-qualifying despite ballistic missile inclusion, or require stricter confirmation by Mar 31 +3 days, though current consensus is strong."}

The AI analyst's finding is based on erroneous market dates (input showed open 2026-03-17, end 2026-03-07), but actual market opened ~Feb 28, 2026, ends March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, making it active and not a 50/50 trap.

Correction: {'trade': 'Buy Yes at $0.90', 'reasoning': 'Iranian Army claimed ballistic missile strike on Erbil, Iraq (Peshmerga base near airport) on March 24, 2026, killing 6; confirmed by consensus of credible sources (FDD, ISW, Wikipedia, media); qualifies as missile impacting Iraq soil, post-open date, explicitly claimed by Iran, not proxy/intercepted. True prob Yes ~99%, edge ~9% with 5 days to resolution.', 'risk': 'Oracle could nitpick attribution (requires origin from Iran territory) or lack of impact confirmation by post-deadline, but consensus already strong.'}