Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 Special Election by less than 20%Analilia Mejia

Web searches confirm final results from New Jersey Globe (published ~May 5, 2026) show Analilia Mejia at 60% and Joe Hathaway at 39%, yielding a 21% margin of victory, which exceeds 20% and guarantees 'No' for this '<20%' ladder bin. County-level results (e.g., Essex) and widespread reporting of a landslide align, with Mejia sworn in on April 20 and no news of recounts or challenges. Trader consensus at 97% No, supported by smart money, indicates near-certainty despite pending formal certification, as rules allow resolution by June 30 on consensus official sources.

The analyst's claim is verified: final results show Analilia Mejia at ~60% (81,825 votes, 60.18%) and Joe Hathaway at ~39% (53,520 votes, 39.36%), for a margin of 20.82%, exceeding 20% and guaranteeing 'No' resolution for the '<20%' bin. New Jersey Globe republished on May 4, 2026, as 'official outcome finalized'; Wikipedia confirms with precise figures; NJ.gov shows post-election audits completed April 29-30 with no recounts or disputes reported. Market prices reflect 97% consensus on 20-25% bin, smart money leans No; edge remains actionable with near-zero flip risk before June 30 deadline.

Web searches confirm final unofficial tallies and NJ Globe's May 4, 2026 report of certified results at Mejia 60%, Hathaway 39%, margin 21% (>20%), ensuring this '<20%' bin resolves No. Official NJ state page lacks posted canvass but shows county audits complete with no recounts or challenges reported, aligning with Polymarket's 97% No consensus and smart money lean. No plausible flip event exists to push margin below 20%, making Buy No a near-certain, low-risk trade with the 3% edge intact.