Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026?

Web searches confirm Naim Qassem is still Hezbollah's secretary-general, with recent activity including a televised message on March 17, 2026, and no reports of resignation, detention, or removal since the market opened on December 16, 2025. Primary resolution sources (official Hezbollah statements or consensus reporting) support 'No' resolution unless a sudden change occurs in the final 5 days. Given the 90% market price for No and low risk of abrupt change, true probability of No is over 90%, meeting the >=80% threshold for a profitable trade.

Credible recent news (within 14 hours) confirms Naim Qassem is actively serving as Hezbollah's secretary-general, delivering speeches and statements, with no reports of resignation, detention, or removal since the market opened on December 16, 2025. Official Hezbollah statements and consensus reporting show no change, and an arrest order rumor from early March did not result in detention. With 5 days until resolution and primary sources unchanged, true probability of No exceeds 95%, providing a meaningful edge over the 90% market price for a short-term trade.

As of March 26, 2026, Naim Qassem remains the Secretary-General of Hezbollah and is actively leading the group during the ongoing conflict with Israel and the U.S. following the February 28 attacks on Iran. With only five days remaining until the March 31 deadline, there are no credible reports of his resignation, detention, or incapacitation, making a 'No' resolution highly probable.