Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?

Latest available IMF PortWatch data via secondary sources shows 7-day moving averages for Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit calls at 33 on March 8, approximately 28 on March 15, and 36.71 on March 22, all well above the 10 threshold. With only 4 days left until the March 31 deadline and no news of a sudden collapse in traffic or total closure, the probability of hitting <=10 is negligible, making 'No' resolution near-certain. Buying No at 96¢ offers a small but positive edge with low risk, meeting the annualized return and high-probability thresholds.

Latest available IMF PortWatch data via secondary sources shows the 7-day moving average of arrivals at Bab el-Mandeb around 28 as of March 15, 2026, well above 10, with no evidence of a sudden drop to <=10 by March 31 despite 4 days remaining. No news of total closure or extreme escalation, and market rules clearly favor 'No' if no qualifying data point is published, making 'No' near-certain (>99% true probability). Buying No at 96% offers a positive edge with excellent short-term risk-adjusted return, verifiable and actionable now.

The market requires the 7-day moving average of transit calls to drop to 10 or fewer by March 31. Current data from IMF PortWatch and Statista shows that while the Strait of Hormuz has seen a massive drop, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains significantly above the threshold (averaging 20-30+ ships) despite Houthi disruptions, making a drop to <=10 in the next 4 days statistically and operationally near-impossible.