This prediction was committed to a SHA-256 hash at call time. Anyone can verify the call was not changed after the fact.
Military action against Iran ends by May 31, 2026? | No | 2026-05-31
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Verifying…
echo -n "Military action against Iran ends by May 31, 2026? | No | 2026-05-31" | shasum -a 256 | cut -c1-8The analysis relies on stale prices (Yes now ~55-60% for May 31 market and ~15% for April 15, per recent positions and listings), invalidating the claimed 25% edge on No at 10¢; there is no logical error as Yes probabilities correctly increase for later dates in 'ends by' markets. Trading closed on 2026-03-31, so not actionable on 2026-04-08. Ongoing war with confirmed US/Israel airstrikes on Iranian soil (e.g., Tehran per NYT/CNN March 25 reports) suggests persistent risk, but P(No) <80% amid ceasefire talks, failing the near-certainty threshold.
Web searches confirm multiple qualifying US/Israel airstrikes on Iranian soil occurred on April 7, 2026 (e.g., Israeli warplanes striking bridges, railways, airport, petrochemical plant, and explosions on Kharg Island oil terminal), reported by credible outlets like CBC and Al Jazeera, meeting consensus standard without mention of interceptions. These events post-date market open (March 25) and satisfy all criteria (aerial strikes impacting ground territory), ensuring 'No' resolution regardless of future events. Despite Yes priced at ~90-96%, No at 4-10% remains severely underpriced, validating the analyst's mispricing call and buy-No recommendation with massive edge (>80% true probability).
The analyst correctly identifies a massive mispricing where 'No' is undervalued at 10 cents, but the reasoning regarding the relationship between the April 15 and May 31 markets is slightly inverted. In a 'Military action ends by' series, if the April 15 market is 71% 'Yes', the May 31 market MUST be higher than 71% (as it includes all 'Yes' scenarios for April plus 45 additional days to achieve a 'Yes'). However, the 90% price for May 31 is still fundamentally fragile given the high-intensity conflict reported in late March.
Correction: {'trade': 'Buy No at $0.10', 'category': '', 'reasoning': "Search results from April 1, 2026, confirm that US and Israeli strikes occurred as recently as March 29 (Mashhad and Lamerd). For this market to resolve 'Yes', there must be a full calendar day with ZERO qualifying strikes before May 31. While the crowd is pricing in a ceasefire (74% probability), the 'No' side at 10% is an asymmetric bet because a single confirmed drone or missile strike on Iranian soil at any point before the deadline triggers a 'No' resolution. Given the volatility and recent high-tempo operations, the probability of at least one strike occurring in a 60-day window is significantly higher than 10%.", 'risk': "A formal ceasefire or a shift to 'grey zone' tactics (cyber, assassinations, or proxy strikes) that do not meet the specific definition of 'aerial bombs, drones, or missiles' would result in a 'Yes' resolution."}
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