Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 55%?

The 2025 Honduran general election turnout was 60.19% (3,926,010 votes / 6,522,577 eligible voters), exceeding 55%, per credible sources like Wikipedia citing La Prensa and confirmed registered voters from CNE, meeting consensus criteria for 'No' resolution. Despite the market being past its end date and in 'In Review' status on Polymarket, with No priced at ~82-85¢, it has not resolved yet due to likely oracle review amid election controversies, but clear evidence supports imminent 'No' resolution. The recommended buy No trade offers ~15-18% edge with near-100% true probability, yielding ~25-30% annualized return over ~9 months remaining, making it actionable.

The 2025 Honduran general election took place on November 30, 2025. According to reports from the National Election Council (CNE) and major outlets like El Heraldo, approximately 3.7 million votes were cast out of 6.5 million eligible voters, resulting in a turnout of approximately 56.9%. Since this is above the 55% threshold, the 'No' outcome is the correct resolution. The market is currently 'In Review' on Polymarket with 'No' priced at $0.82, offering a clear arbitrage opportunity as the event has concluded and the data confirms a turnout above 55%.