This prediction was committed to a SHA-256 hash at call time. Anyone can verify the call was not changed after the fact.
Will Iran strike the United Kingdom by March 31? | No | 2026-03-31
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Verifying…
echo -n "Will Iran strike the United Kingdom by March 31? | No | 2026-03-31" | shasum -a 256 | cut -c1-8No qualifying Iranian strike on UK soil or embassy has occurred since market open on March 17, 2026; the Diego Garcia missile launches (March 20) did not impact territory, were not claimed by Iran, and are reported as intercepted or missed by consensus credible sources like WSJ, NBC, and Al Jazeera. Strict rules (impact required, no proxies, consensus confirmation) and 4 days left make Yes extremely unlikely (<5% true prob), so Buy No remains actionable even at updated prices (~22¢ Yes), yielding high edge and >95% true prob of profit.
No qualifying Iranian strike on UK soil or embassy has occurred since market open on March 17, 2026, as confirmed by web searches, Polymarket page (still open), and Wikipedia on related incidents (strikes on overseas bases like Diego Garcia/Cyprus were intercepted, pre-date, or not confirmed as direct impacts by Iranian forces). Current prices have shifted to Yes 22¢/No 98¢ (from analyst's 28/72), closing the edge to ~2%, which is too small and not actionable given remaining 4 days and recent escalation warnings (e.g., US officials noting potential Iranian missile range to UK).
The market rules explicitly exclude intercepted missiles and missiles that fail to reach their target. Recent reports from [cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/22/uk-confirms-iran-fired-two-missiles-at-british-american-base.html) and [bbc.com](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly73y5e788o) confirm that the only Iranian attempt against UK territory (Diego Garcia) resulted in one failure and one interception, neither of which qualify for a 'Yes' resolution. With only four days remaining and the UK government stating there is no assessment of a direct threat to the British mainland, the 28% price for 'Yes' is a significant mispricing of a near-certain 'No' outcome.
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