Kash Patel out by April 30?

Official FBI sources and recent DOJ press conferences (as recent as 3 hours ago) confirm Kash Patel remains FBI Director, with no cessation by April 30 imminent in the next 2 days. Speculative rumors of potential firing exist but lack official Trump administration confirmation or consensus of credible reporting required for Yes resolution; Patel has denied related allegations of absence. Despite the announcement clause extending to June 30, the absence of concrete developments and high burden of proof on Yes make No near-certain (P>=95%), validating the 8% edge on No at 90% pricing; smart money lean to Yes is weak (0.40) and outweighed by verifiable current status.

Kash Patel is confirmed as the current FBI Director via the official FBI website and recent joint DOJ press conferences on April 27, 2026, with no announcements of resignation, removal, or replacement from the Trump administration or consensus of credible reporting. Rumors of potential firing exist but do not constitute evidence under resolution rules, and with only two days until the April 30 deadline, the probability of him ceasing the role (or an announcement thereof) remains below 10%, making No at 90% undervalued with true probability ~95-98%. Smart money lean to Yes is weak (confidence 0.40) and contradicted by hard evidence of his ongoing role.