US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Key actors (Trump, Khamenei/IRGC, Iranian negotiators) show no aligned incentive or capability for physical US possession by the 10-day deadline: Iran has repeatedly rejected US handover in the last 30 days (calling the stockpile 'sacred' and proposing Russia instead), while Trump has softened rhetoric to PR-only and excavation/transfer logistics cannot complete in time. Base rates for rapid adversarial uranium transfers are near-zero; recent behavior (distrust, buried stockpile, stalled talks) points firmly to No resolution.

Rules require actual physical custody/control by May 31 11:59 PM ET (or official US confirmation or widespread credible consensus reporting of same); mere announcements of future deals, plans, or commitments explicitly do not qualify. Current reporting shows only ongoing negotiations and future-oriented statements from Trump (e.g., 'at some point,' 'will get it'), with no evidence of possession having occurred or any imminent qualifying event in the remaining 10 days. Default-No applies to any ambiguity, and no RESOLVER UPDATE overrides this.

Market at 95.4¢ No with $14.8M volume and tight implied spreads shows real consensus, not illusory. Smart-money whales heavily concentrated on No ($1.46M stake vs $130k on Yes, 0.80 confidence) with no opposing flow; recent price action (Yes -1.4pp 1d, -1.8pp 1w) drifts toward No on healthy volume. No thin-book red flags or contradicting sibling-bin moves; microstructure fully supports riding the near-certain No to resolution.