Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026?

Key decision-makers (Trump, Warsh, Powell, Fed Board) have incentives for a swift transition post-Senate confirmation on May 14, but recent behavior shows no swearing-in announcement or update on the official Fed site still listing Powell as Chair, with Powell's April 29 statement tying his step-aside to term end without acceleration. Historical base rates indicate 1-2 week lags between confirmation and oath (e.g., Powell's 13 days in 2018), making mechanical completion by May 15 23:59 ET unlikely despite political pressure. No demonstrated pattern of same/next-day handovers supports the No outcome resolving with >95% certainty.

The market rules require Powell to actually cease holding the Chair position by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, excluding the scheduled term end alone or temporary service until successor confirmation; official Fed sources must confirm vacating, with consensus reporting secondary. Senate confirmation of Warsh on May 14 is insufficient, as historical precedents (Powell 2018: 13 days; 2022: 11 days to swearing-in) show no same/next-day transitions possible by May 15 Friday 23:59 ET, ensuring No resolution. No plausible rule-based flip exists, meeting >=95% certainty for Buy No in this legal_office market.

Smart money signal leans No at 0.85 confidence, driven by high-PnL whales like ScottyNooo (rank 142, $900k lifetime PnL, $4.4k stake) far outweighing Yes-side positions, signaling insider conviction against a rapid handover. Recent price action reflects a 5pp Yes contraction over 1d on $79k volume (healthy for ~3-week market), with No stabilizing near 84% and no drift away, indicating sustained buying support without aggressive opposing flow. Volume is meaningful (> $10k weekly equiv.), liquidity adequate per Polymarket norms, and no thin-book illusions or contrarian whale activity—microstructure cleanly backs the No edge as unarbed by sophisticated traders.