This prediction was committed to a SHA-256 hash at call time. Anyone can verify the call was not changed after the fact.
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March? | Yes | 2026-03-31
db0ced7a
Verifying…
echo -n "Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March? | Yes | 2026-03-31" | shasum -a 256 | cut -c1-8Existing reports (e.g., NYT-cited calls in MEM and TOI) indicate possible recent communications between Trump and MBS, but they rely on anonymous sources without specific March dates after March 1, official confirmations, or consensus across major independent outlets. The Feb 28 call predates the market start and doesn't count. Ambiguities in evidence standard and timing favor 'No' resolution, making Yes probability ~50%, below the 80% threshold for approval. The market price (~40-45%) accurately reflects this uncertainty.
Multiple credible sources, including NYT (via Times of Israel), WaPo, Arab News, and Al Arabiya, report phone calls and regular verbal communications between Trump and MBS starting early March 2026 (e.g., around March 1 and ongoing as of March 16), satisfying the market's definition of 'talk' within the March 1-31 window. Consensus of credible reporting exists for resolution to Yes, making the true probability near-certain (>95%) despite the market pricing Yes at only 40% on low volume. The AI's recommended Buy Yes trade offers a substantial, low-risk edge with the event already having occurred.
The analyst correctly identified a mispricing, but the market is actually a 'Yes' resolution already based on multiple credible reports of calls that have already occurred in March 2026. The current price of 40% for 'Yes' is irrational given the existing evidence.
Correction: {'trade': 'Buy Yes at $0.40', 'reasoning': "Multiple credible sources, including The New York Times, Interfax, and India Today, have confirmed that Donald Trump and Mohammed bin Salman have already spoken multiple times in March 2026 regarding the conflict with Iran. Specifically, reports from March 16, 24, and 25 confirm ongoing verbal communication (phone calls) which satisfies the market's 'talk' definition.", 'risk': "The only risk is a delay in the oracle's recognition of these reports, but the consensus of credible reporting is already established."}
+2 more open picks · full 3-judge reasoning · Telegram premium channel.
Subscribe Now