Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 59% and 60%?

The AI analyst's recommendation to buy Yes is incorrect because the official voter turnout was 60.19% according to the CNE (as cited on Wikipedia and La Prensa), which exceeds 60% and does not fall between 59% and 60%. The market rules specify resolution by consensus of credible reporting or official CNE results, both confirming 60.19%.

Correction: {'trade': 'Buy No at $0.56', 'reasoning': "Turnout of 60.19% clearly places it outside the 59-60% bracket, making 'No' certain to resolve based on official CNE data and consensus reporting. With No priced at 56¢ implying only 56% probability, this offers a massive ~78% edge (true prob 100%). The market is part of a series on smaller brackets, and prior resolution criteria align with literal official figures.", 'risk': 'Unlikely official revision or extreme ambiguity forcing lowest bracket resolution by Dec 31, 2026, but CNE declared results Dec 24, 2025 with international acceptance.'}

The analyst recommends buying Yes, but official CNE data reported a turnout of 60.19%, which is above the 59‑60% bracket, so the market should resolve No. The consensus of credible reporting (La Prensa, El Heraldo) cites the CNE figure, making the No outcome near‑certain.

Correction: {'trade': 'Buy No at $0.56', 'reasoning': 'Official CNE turnout is 60.19%, outside the 59‑60% range, so the market will resolve No. The No side is priced at 56%, offering a positive edge over the true probability (~99% No).', 'risk': 'If an alternative source later reports a different official turnout (e.g., 68.7%) that still falls outside the bracket, the No outcome remains correct; the only risk is a reporting error that moves turnout into the 59‑60% range, which is highly unlikely.'}