This prediction was committed to a SHA-256 hash at call time. Anyone can verify the call was not changed after the fact.
Will SpaceX have less than or equal to 11 launches in April? | No | 2026-05-01
d87d5894
Verifying…
echo -n "Will SpaceX have less than or equal to 11 launches in April? | No | 2026-05-01" | shasum -a 256 | cut -c1-8The analyst's claim of only 10 completed launches and a maximum of 11 (with one on April 29) is incorrect; reliable sources like Wikipedia and SpaceX's site confirm 10 launches up to April 26, a Falcon Heavy (Viasat-3 F3) scheduled for April 29, and a Starlink mission on April 30, likely totaling 12 launches and resolving No. The market prices Yes at 38¢ (overpriced given ~5-10% true probability of <=11), creating an edge on No.
Correction: {'trade': 'Buy No at current price (likely ~62¢, true prob >90%)', 'category': 'mispricing', 'reasoning': 'Opposite trade recommended: No is undervalued as both remaining launches are highly likely to occur before the April 30 deadline, per official schedules and historical reliability. No plausible flip event exists to bring total to <=11.', 'risk': 'Both remaining launches scrub repeatedly and are not rescheduled within April 30, though SpaceX Starlink missions rarely scrub and Falcon Heavy has already been retargeted after one weather scrub.'}
The AI analyst incorrectly states that only 10 launches are completed with a maximum of 11 including one scheduled for April 29, claiming <=11 is guaranteed. However, SpaceX's official launches page confirms 10 launches completed through April 26, but two additional launches are scheduled for April 29: a Falcon 9 Starlink mission from SLC-4E in California and a Falcon Heavy ViaSat-3 F3 mission from Florida (targeting 07:13 PT). If both occur before the April 30 cutoff, the total will be 12, resolving No. This uncertainty means Yes is not near-certain (P(Yes) likely ~40%, matching market price), so no actionable edge exists and the analysis is inaccurate.
The analyst incorrectly states only 10 launches completed with at most one more, but the official SpaceX launches page shows 11 completed launches up to April 26, plus two scheduled for April 29 (Viasat-3 F3 Falcon Heavy at ~10:13 ET and Starlink Group 17-36 Falcon 9 late evening ET/April 30 early). This makes more than 11 launches highly likely.
Correction: {'trade': 'Buy No at $0.62', 'category': '', 'reasoning': "With 11 already completed and two routine missions scheduled today within the resolution window, the probability of at least one more launch (making total >=12) is approximately 99%, far higher than the market's implied ~62% for No. This provides a substantial edge buying No.", 'risk': "Both launches could be scrubbed multiple times and delayed past April 30 11:59PM ET, though this is extremely unlikely given SpaceX's high reliability for such missions."}
+2 more open picks · full 3-judge reasoning · Telegram premium channel.
Subscribe Now