Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?

Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair officially ends on May 15, 2026, per Federal Reserve press release, which is after the market's May 14, 2026, deadline; no evidence of him ceasing the role earlier or any qualifying announcement of resignation/removal before May 14. Official Fed website lists him as current Chair, and recent statements confirm he steps aside only at term end while remaining a governor. This aligns with consensus pricing (No at 97.7%), smart money leaning No, and high certainty of No resolution given formal rules and lack of contrary facts.

Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair officially ends on May 15, 2026, per Federal Reserve press release and multiple credible sources including recent news from April 29-30, 2026; no announcements of early resignation or removal have occurred before May 14. The market resolves No if he remains Chair through May 14 ET, which is confirmed by current Fed Board listing him as Chair and absence of any qualifying cessation event. Consensus at 97.7% No aligns with near-100% probability, supported by official sources and smart money; 3% edge on high-certainty hold is actionable.

Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair officially ends on May 15, 2026, as confirmed by his recent statements and multiple credible sources including the Fed website, which still lists him as Chair with no updates indicating early departure. The market requires him to cease being Chair for any period by May 14, 2026 (ET), or an announcement of resignation/removal before that date; neither has occurred, and his announcement confirms he will serve until May 15. With the market priced at 97.7¢ No (consensus >80%), high volume, smart money leaning No, and only 12 days left with no credible risk of early exit, this is a high-certainty No resolution with a verifiable 2.3% edge.