Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?

Swalwell, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all resigned in April 2026; Mills remains defiant, explicitly refusing to resign amid ongoing Ethics Committee investigation with no expulsion vote scheduled or possible before May 31. Key actors (Mills, House leadership, Ethics Committee) lack both incentive and procedural capability for removal in the final 7 days. Base rate for House expulsion in under a week is near-zero; recent behavior shows deliberate stalling, not acceleration.

Swalwell, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all resigned in April 2026 (official announcements and House floor readings confirm they ceased holding office). Mills has publicly refused resignation, with no expulsion vote, Ethics action, or credible reporting of imminent removal before May 31; the binding rule requires an official announcement or consensus confirmation of cessation for each individual by the deadline. With only days remaining and no qualifying event for Mills, all four cannot satisfy the criteria, so the market resolves No per the explicit 'all' requirement and default-No on ambiguity.

Market at 98.5% No with $27.8K volume and tight consensus; smart-money whales hold $214 on No (0.87 confidence) vs $16 on Yes, aligned with recommended side. Price action shows stable high-No pricing into final week with no aggressive flow against it and no thin-book signals. Microstructure fully consistent with near-certain No outcome as Mills remains in office.