Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

Web searches confirm that despite US strikes on military targets on Kharg Island on April 7, 2026, there is no evidence of loss of Iranian control—no occupation, seizure, or establishment of control by another entity, aligning with the strict resolution criteria excluding bombardments and temporary actions. The previous Polymarket for April 15 resolved 'No' at 100% despite the strikes, indicating the oracle's literal interpretation favors 'No' without clear control transfer. Current consensus reporting shows Iran retains control, and with 45 days left, no imminent catalysts for qualifying change, making 'Yes' probability near 0% and 'No' at 92% undervalued for a high-confidence, short-term trade.

The market resolves based on whether Iran loses primary control of Kharg Island by May 31, 2026. Web search results from [cnn.com](https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/25/politics/iran-kharg-island-us-military-ground-troops) and [yahoo.com](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-could-try-seize-irans-145452325.html) confirm that as of late March 2026, Iran is actively reinforcing the island's defenses against a *potential* US operation, and no loss of control has occurred. The strict resolution rules exclude temporary actions like the March 13 US strikes, and the burden of proof is on 'Yes'. With the deadline in 45 days and no credible reporting of an imminent invasion or transfer of control, the true probability of a 'Yes' resolution is near zero, making 'No' at 92¢ a near-certain bet.

The market rules set an extremely high bar for a 'Yes' resolution, requiring another state to establish primary governmental or military control, with contested or unclear situations explicitly defaulting to 'No'. As of April 16, 2026, Kharg Island remains firmly under Iranian control, and the April 15 sub-market has already resolved to 'No'. Given the strict criteria, heavy Iranian defenses, and lack of any imminent occupation plans, the 'No' outcome is near-certain (>99% probability), making the 92% price a safe trade that comfortably exceeds the annualized return threshold.