Polymarket AI Analiz Aracı — Tahmin Piyasası Tarayıcısı

+1.6% Will a hurricane form by May 31? No +2.5% Named storm forms before hurricane season? No × MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? No × MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? No +5.3% Will Claude go down 12+ times in May? No +2.5% Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31? No +3.9% Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? No +1.2% Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? No +3.1% Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 31? No +4.4% Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31? No +11.1% Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026? No +20.5% Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31? No +1.5% Epstein suicide note released by May 31? No +13.6% US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? No +2.7% Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by May 31, 2026? No +1.4% Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? No +3.1% Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? No +2.3% Labour leadership election scheduled by May 31? No +2.8% Kash Patel out by May 31? No +5.5% Will Russia capture Pokrovka by May 31? No +5.8% Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election? No +1.6% Ruben Gallego out as US Senator by May 31? No +4.3% Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? No +7.0% Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? No +1.3% Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? No +2.6% Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by May 31? No +1.9% Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? No +2.1% Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? No +2.8% Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? No +2.8% Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? No +2.9% Starmer out by May 31, 2026? No +3.8% Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026? No +4.7% Will Russia enter Myrne by May 31, 2026? No +22.0% Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $690b on May 31? Yes +12.4% Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? No +1.6% Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by May 31? No +1.7% Will Comey smile in his mugshot? No +7.1% Will Qatar send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? No +3.3% Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May 2026? No +2.3% US bank failure by May 31? No +4.5% GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? No +12.4% Israel closes its airspace by May 31? No +19.8% Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? No +5.5% Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31? No +1.7% Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? No +2.6% Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by May 31, 2026? No +3.5% Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? No +5.8% Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? No +5.8% Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? No +7.5% Evo Morales arrested by May 31? No +1.8% Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? No +1.9% Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31? No +2.7% Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31? No +3.6% Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? No +2.5% Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? No +6.4% Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by May 31, 2026? No +4.1% Will Russia capture Sofiivka by May 31? No +6.8% Will Russia capture Myropillia by May 31? No +6.4% Will Russia enter Khatnie by May 31, 2026? No +4.8% Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? No +11.9% Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by May 31? No +6.5% Will Russia enter Svitle by May 31? No +9.1% Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? No +14.3% US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? No +1.3% Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? No +1.8% Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? No +2.5% Will Russia enter Dobropillia by May 31? No +11.4% Cory Mills out as US Rep by May 31? No +10.5% Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? No +1.3% Will Bahrain send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? No +1.5% Will Kuwait send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? No +1.8% Will Saudi Arabia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? No +1.3% Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026? No +1.5% Will Oman send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? No +1.8% Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? No +2.6% Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? No +3.1% Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? No +3.2% Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by May 31? No +4.7% Will the United Arab Emirates send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? No +4.2% Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31? No +4.5% Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? No +6.3% Will Russia capture Toretske by May 31, 2026? No +4.9% US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? No +11.7% Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by May 31? No +11.7% Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? No +15.6% Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by May 31? No +13.6% Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? No +1.5% Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? No +1.5% Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? No +1.9% Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? No +6.4% Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2026? No +3.3% Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? No +5.5% Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in May 2026? No +6.4% Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in May 2026? No +6.0% Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? No +7.5% Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? No +12.6% Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31? No +8.1% Iran leadership change by May 31? No +12.4% Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? No +13.0% US x China tariff agreement by May 31? No +14.3% Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? No +16.3% Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? No +8.1% Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? No +2.4% Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? No +2.9% Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? No +9.3% Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? No +5.7% Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? No +61.3% Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? No +5.2% Iran closes its airspace by May 27? No +5.4% Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 Maltese general election? Yes +1.1% Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May? No +1.7% Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? No +1.1% Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 in May? No +1.2% Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? No +4.0% Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in May? No +8.1% Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May? No +1.9% Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31? No +44.9% Pooh Shiesty charged by May 31? Yes +46.0% Nothing Ever Happens: March Nothing +1.2% Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May? No × Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? No × Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? No +40.8% Will Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027? Yes +3.4% Will Gregor Heise be the Republican Nominee for TX-30? No +3.7% Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision? Yes +2.9% Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election? Yes +8.1% US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? No +17.0% Israel closes its airspace by May 24? No +9.9% Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? No +2.8% US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? No +4.2% Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China? No +5.3% Will Trump announce the release of detained Americans? No × Major US official out by May 31? No +7.6% Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026? Yes +1.6% Iran closes its airspace by May 21? No × Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel? No +4.3% Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? Yes +2.7% Will Stephen Heidt win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election? No +18.3% Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky? No +4.2% Will Jim Risch be the Republican nominee for Senate in Idaho? Yes +8.1% Will Tommy Tuberville win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election? Yes +53.8% Did a crypto hedge fund blow up? No × Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026? Yes +169.2% Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%? No +18.3% Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%? Yes +39.9% Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? No +4.5% Starmer out by May 15, 2026? No +21.2% Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026? No +2.4% Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? No +12.5% Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? Yes +10.3% Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 15, 2026? Yes +3.1% Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? No +13.3% Cerebras IPO before 2027? Yes +3.1% Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 Special Election by less than 20%Analilia Mejia No +8.1% Will 49 or fewer senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee? No +57.5% Will Luxembourg advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? No +65.3% Will Trump visit China by May 15? Yes × Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve? No +13.1% Will Elizabeth Warren vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve? No +3.5% Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? No +18.3% Will Zachary Shrewsbury be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia? No +22.0% Will Trump visit China by May 31? Yes +6.4% Will Brinker Harding be the Republican nominee for NE-02? Yes × Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? No +50.4% Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? No × Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? Yes +12.4% Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? No × Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? No +6.5% Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026? No +9.6% Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? Yes +4.3% Will Amelia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 2025? No +24.2% Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? Yes +12.9% Trump's mail-in voting executive order blocked in April? No +2.3% Will US crude oil reserves fall to 200M by May 1? No +6.4% Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election? Yes +8.1% Will Zendaya wear a wedding or engagement ring at the Met Gala? No +37.0% Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala? No +9.3% Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? No × Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026? No +5.3% AWS service disrupted by April 30? No +3.7% Tech Layoffs Up or Down in Q1, 20​26? Up +5.3% Will Nate and Cassie marry in Euphoria: Season 3? Yes +41.8% Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? No +17.6% Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? No × Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election? No +19.8% Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3? No +2.2% Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.00 (LOW) by April 30, 2026? No +52.3% Will Pacto Histórico win 24-26 seats in the Colombian Senate in the 2026 Colombian parliamentary election? Yes +7.5% Will the Senate pass the SAVE America Act (H.R. 7296)? No +23.5% Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? No +135.3% MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Yes +8.3% Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in April 2026? No +15.6% Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $670b on April 30? No +2.1% Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by April 30? No +2.2% Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026? No +2.1% Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? No +2.1% Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? No +4.9% Will Trump disparage Pope Leo XIV by April 30? No +4.7% Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? No +8.8% Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30? No × Will President Trump sign 4 pieces of legislation into law in April? Yes +5.8% Israel military action on Damascus by April 30, 2026? No +2.1% Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? No +2.2% Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown? No +3.1% Will Bad Bunny have a #1 hit in April? No +3.1% Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30? No +3.2% Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $360 end of April? Yes +3.8% Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026? No +4.1% Trump ballroom project unblocked by April 30? No +4.9% Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30? No +11.1% Kash Patel out by April 30? No × Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026? Yes × Will SpaceX have exactly 12 launches in April? No +2.1% Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026? No +58.7% Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026? No +4.2% Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by April 30? No +2.2% Will Marco Rubio visit China by April 30, 2026? No +2.8% Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by April 30? No +3.6% Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? No +2.2% Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in April? No +12.4% Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $3.00 end of April? Yes +13.0% Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? No +2.9% Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? No +3.1% Will Russia capture Havrylivka by April 30, 2026? No +4.7% Masoud Pezeshkian out by April 30? No +5.4% Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? No +7.2% Will SpaceX have exactly 16 launches in April? No +3.7% Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? No +3.5% Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by April 30? No +9.7% Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster? No +5.4% Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? No +7.5% U.S. Congress member out over Epstein files by April 30? No +43.9% Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? No +3.3% KRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30? No +2.6% Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Yes × Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026? Yes +24.2% Will SpaceX have less than or equal to 11 launches in April? No +10.4% Will Apple dip to $216 in April? No +14.9% Will Meta have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? No × Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? No +25.0% Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes +27.4% Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes +13.0% Will NVIDIA dip to $160 in April? No +30.7% Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? No +14.2% Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 1.0%? No +2.5% Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference? Yes +2.4% Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)? Yes +4.3% Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? No × Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? No × Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30? No +2.6% Trump re-sues WSJ by April 27? No +17.8% Will PLC win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election? Yes × DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? No × GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? No +3.0% Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? No +2.0% Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 21? No +3.3% Will the DHS shutdown end between April 17-20, 2026? No +15.6% Octra FDV above $200M one day after launch? No × Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? No +4.4% Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? Yes × Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 6, 2026? No +3.3% Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? Yes +20.5% Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? No +7.2% Will Waymo launch in Miami by June 30 2026? Yes +3.7% Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? No +2.1% Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14? No × Will Starmer say "U-Turn" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? No +27.4% Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 31, 2026? No +7.5% Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more? Yes × Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026? No +11.1% Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? Yes × Military action against Iran ends by May 31, 2026? No +3.1% Will Justin Bieber drop out as a Coachella 2026 Headliner? No +40.4% Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 56%? No +77.1% Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 59% and 60%? No +4.7% Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the April Meeting? Yes +21.2% Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 55%? No +20.0% Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%? No +190.3% Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March? No × Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% or more in March? No +11.4% Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in March 2026? No × US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? No × Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No +25.8% Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Yes × Clavicular charged again by June 30? No +24.2% Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? No +92.3% Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? No × Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 21, 2026? No +93.1% Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m? No × Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be between 65% and 70%? Yes +4.0% Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31? No +3.8% Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win 25-29 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election? Yes × Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be between 70% and 75%? No +4.0% Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? No +5.7% Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31? No +149.7% Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March? Yes × Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026? No +38.2% Will Iran strike the United Kingdom by March 31? No × Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by March 31? Yes +41.8% Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%? No +9.9% Will the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be between 14.2m & 14.4m square kilometers? Yes +41.8% Will Iran strike Bahrain again in March? Yes +3.4% Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%? No +7.0% Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 29, 2026? Yes +5.7% Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by March 31? No +11.1% Will USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by March 31? No +8.1% Will the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) close above 4750 on the final trading day of Q1 2026? Yes +2.8% Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 29, 2026? No ✓ Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in March? No ✓ Will Rami leave Babymonster? No +3.5% Will John Fetterman vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026? No +5.3% Iran leadership change by March 31? No +2.3% Another GTA VI trailer released by March 31? No +4.8% Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? No +11.7% Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? No ✓ Robinhood launches prediction market through MIAXdx by March 31? No +2.7% Will Apple release a new version of the Apple TV by March 31? No +2.8% Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by March 31? No +13.0% Avatar 4 greenlit by March 31? No ✓ Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? No ✓ Will Russia enter Serhiivka by March 31? No ✓ Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026? No +2.5% Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March? No +4.7% Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31? No × Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31? Yes +2.3% Will another country recognize Somaliland by March 31? No +2.8% Will gas hit (Low) $3.15 by March 31? No +3.6% Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31? No +5.8% Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31? No +10.5% Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? No ✓ Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31? No +2.3% Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March? No +6.1% Claude 4.7 released by March 31? No +6.4% Will Russia capture Bilytske by March 31, 2026? No +19.0% Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? No ✓ Will India strike Pakistan by March 31? No ✓ NATO Article 5 by March 31? No +2.6% Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? No +7.1% Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31? No +9.3% Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? No +40.6% Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026? Yes ✓ Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? No +2.2% Will Oro launch a token by March 31, 2026? No +3.1% Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in March? No +3.8% Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by March 31? No +2.4% Nothing Ever Happens: Ilhan Omar Nothing +2.9% Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by March 31? No +3.4% Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? No +7.6% Will Bernie Sanders vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026? No +11.7% US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? No +22.0% Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? No +6.3% Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? No +6.5% Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by March 31, 2026? No +3.6% Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? No +22.4% Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $4.00 end of March? Yes +13.0% Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31? Yes +2.1% Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $180 end of March? No +7.5% Will Meta (META) close above $560 end of March? Yes +17.0% Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31? No × Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026? No ✓ Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026? Yes ✓ Trump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026? Yes ✓ Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? No +13.0% Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 24, 2026? Yes +16.3% Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March? Yes × Will Trump say "Easter" in March? No +11.6% Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 20, 2026? Yes × Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,400 (LOW) in March 2026? No ✓ Will Iran strike Iraq again in March? Yes +8.8% Will Heather McPherson win the Canadian NDP Leadership election? No +18.3% Will Trump say "Rigged" or "Stolen" this week? (March 29) Yes × Will "Oil" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29) Yes +2.1% Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on March 26? No +58.7% Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be less than or equal to 2.4%? No +2.2% Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 24, 2026? No +2.7% Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? No +3.4% Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 24? No +3.8% Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on March 23? No +7.5% Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m? No × Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8.5m and 10m? No ✓ Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (March 22) No +9.3% Will XRP dip to $1.40 March 16-22? Yes +2.2% Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 22? Yes +3.5% Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 19, 2026? No ✓ Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary be between 2,200,000 and 2,400,000 voters? No +2.7% Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? No × Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 6.00% and 6.50%? No ✓ Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 9, 2026? No +124.7% Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Yes +1.6% Will a hurricane form by May 31? No +2.5% Named storm forms before hurricane season? No × MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? No × MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? No +5.3% Will Claude go down 12+ times in May? No +2.5% Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31? No +3.9% Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? No +1.2% Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? No +3.1% Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 31? No +4.4% Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31? No +11.1% Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026? No +20.5% Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31? No +1.5% Epstein suicide note released by May 31? No +13.6% US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? No +2.7% Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by May 31, 2026? No +1.4% Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? No +3.1% Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? No +2.3% Labour leadership election scheduled by May 31? No +2.8% Kash Patel out by May 31? No +5.5% Will Russia capture Pokrovka by May 31? No +5.8% Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election? No +1.6% Ruben Gallego out as US Senator by May 31? No +4.3% Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? No +7.0% Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? No +1.3% Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? No +2.6% Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by May 31? No +1.9% Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? No +2.1% Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? No +2.8% Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? No +2.8% Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? No +2.9% Starmer out by May 31, 2026? No +3.8% Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026? No +4.7% Will Russia enter Myrne by May 31, 2026? No +22.0% Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $690b on May 31? Yes +12.4% Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? No +1.6% Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by May 31? No +1.7% Will Comey smile in his mugshot? No +7.1% Will Qatar send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? No +3.3% Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May 2026? No +2.3% US bank failure by May 31? No +4.5% GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? No +12.4% Israel closes its airspace by May 31? No +19.8% Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? No +5.5% Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31? No +1.7% Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? No +2.6% Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by May 31, 2026? No +3.5% Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? No +5.8% Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? No +5.8% Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? No +7.5% Evo Morales arrested by May 31? No +1.8% Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? No +1.9% Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31? No +2.7% Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31? No +3.6% Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? No +2.5% Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? No +6.4% Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by May 31, 2026? No +4.1% Will Russia capture Sofiivka by May 31? No +6.8% Will Russia capture Myropillia by May 31? No +6.4% Will Russia enter Khatnie by May 31, 2026? No +4.8% Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? No +11.9% Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by May 31? No +6.5% Will Russia enter Svitle by May 31? No +9.1% Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? No +14.3% US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? No +1.3% Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? No +1.8% Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? No +2.5% Will Russia enter Dobropillia by May 31? No +11.4% Cory Mills out as US Rep by May 31? No +10.5% Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? No +1.3% Will Bahrain send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? No +1.5% Will Kuwait send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? No +1.8% Will Saudi Arabia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? No +1.3% Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026? No +1.5% Will Oman send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? No +1.8% Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? No +2.6% Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? No +3.1% Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? No +3.2% Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by May 31? No +4.7% Will the United Arab Emirates send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? No +4.2% Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31? No +4.5% Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? No +6.3% Will Russia capture Toretske by May 31, 2026? No +4.9% US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? No +11.7% Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by May 31? No +11.7% Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? No +15.6% Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by May 31? No +13.6% Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? No +1.5% Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? No +1.5% Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? No +1.9% Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? No +6.4% Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2026? No +3.3% Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? No +5.5% Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in May 2026? No +6.4% Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in May 2026? No +6.0% Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? No +7.5% Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? No +12.6% Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31? No +8.1% Iran leadership change by May 31? No +12.4% Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? No +13.0% US x China tariff agreement by May 31? No +14.3% Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? No +16.3% Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? No +8.1% Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? No +2.4% Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? No +2.9% Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? No +9.3% Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? No +5.7% Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? No +61.3% Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? No +5.2% Iran closes its airspace by May 27? No +5.4% Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 Maltese general election? Yes +1.1% Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May? No +1.7% Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? No +1.1% Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 in May? No +1.2% Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May? No +4.0% Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in May? No +8.1% Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May? No +1.9% Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31? No +44.9% Pooh Shiesty charged by May 31? Yes +46.0% Nothing Ever Happens: March Nothing +1.2% Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May? No × Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? No × Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? No +40.8% Will Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027? Yes +3.4% Will Gregor Heise be the Republican Nominee for TX-30? No +3.7% Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision? Yes +2.9% Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election? Yes +8.1% US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? No +17.0% Israel closes its airspace by May 24? No +9.9% Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? No +2.8% US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? No +4.2% Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China? No +5.3% Will Trump announce the release of detained Americans? No × Major US official out by May 31? No +7.6% Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026? Yes +1.6% Iran closes its airspace by May 21? No × Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel? No +4.3% Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? Yes +2.7% Will Stephen Heidt win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election? No +18.3% Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky? No +4.2% Will Jim Risch be the Republican nominee for Senate in Idaho? Yes +8.1% Will Tommy Tuberville win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election? Yes +53.8% Did a crypto hedge fund blow up? No × Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026? Yes +169.2% Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%? No +18.3% Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%? Yes +39.9% Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? No +4.5% Starmer out by May 15, 2026? No +21.2% Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026? No +2.4% Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? No +12.5% Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? Yes +10.3% Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 15, 2026? Yes +3.1% Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? No +13.3% Cerebras IPO before 2027? Yes +3.1% Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 Special Election by less than 20%Analilia Mejia No +8.1% Will 49 or fewer senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee? No +57.5% Will Luxembourg advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? No +65.3% Will Trump visit China by May 15? Yes × Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve? No +13.1% Will Elizabeth Warren vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve? No +3.5% Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? No +18.3% Will Zachary Shrewsbury be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia? No +22.0% Will Trump visit China by May 31? Yes +6.4% Will Brinker Harding be the Republican nominee for NE-02? Yes × Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? No +50.4% Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? No × Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? Yes +12.4% Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? No × Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? No +6.5% Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026? No +9.6% Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? Yes +4.3% Will Amelia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 2025? No +24.2% Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? Yes +12.9% Trump's mail-in voting executive order blocked in April? No +2.3% Will US crude oil reserves fall to 200M by May 1? No +6.4% Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election? Yes +8.1% Will Zendaya wear a wedding or engagement ring at the Met Gala? No +37.0% Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala? No +9.3% Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? No × Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026? No +5.3% AWS service disrupted by April 30? No +3.7% Tech Layoffs Up or Down in Q1, 20​26? Up +5.3% Will Nate and Cassie marry in Euphoria: Season 3? Yes +41.8% Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? No +17.6% Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? No × Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election? No +19.8% Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3? No +2.2% Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.00 (LOW) by April 30, 2026? No +52.3% Will Pacto Histórico win 24-26 seats in the Colombian Senate in the 2026 Colombian parliamentary election? Yes +7.5% Will the Senate pass the SAVE America Act (H.R. 7296)? No +23.5% Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? No +135.3% MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Yes +8.3% Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in April 2026? No +15.6% Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $670b on April 30? No +2.1% Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by April 30? No +2.2% Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026? No +2.1% Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? No +2.1% Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? No +4.9% Will Trump disparage Pope Leo XIV by April 30? No +4.7% Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? No +8.8% Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30? No × Will President Trump sign 4 pieces of legislation into law in April? Yes +5.8% Israel military action on Damascus by April 30, 2026? No +2.1% Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? No +2.2% Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown? No +3.1% Will Bad Bunny have a #1 hit in April? No +3.1% Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30? No +3.2% Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $360 end of April? Yes +3.8% Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026? No +4.1% Trump ballroom project unblocked by April 30? No +4.9% Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30? No +11.1% Kash Patel out by April 30? No × Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026? Yes × Will SpaceX have exactly 12 launches in April? No +2.1% Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026? No +58.7% Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026? No +4.2% Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by April 30? No +2.2% Will Marco Rubio visit China by April 30, 2026? No +2.8% Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by April 30? No +3.6% Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? No +2.2% Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in April? No +12.4% Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $3.00 end of April? Yes +13.0% Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? No +2.9% Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? No +3.1% Will Russia capture Havrylivka by April 30, 2026? No +4.7% Masoud Pezeshkian out by April 30? No +5.4% Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? No +7.2% Will SpaceX have exactly 16 launches in April? No +3.7% Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? No +3.5% Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by April 30? No +9.7% Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster? No +5.4% Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? No +7.5% U.S. Congress member out over Epstein files by April 30? No +43.9% Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? No +3.3% KRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30? No +2.6% Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Yes × Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026? Yes +24.2% Will SpaceX have less than or equal to 11 launches in April? No +10.4% Will Apple dip to $216 in April? No +14.9% Will Meta have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? No × Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? No +25.0% Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes +27.4% Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes +13.0% Will NVIDIA dip to $160 in April? No +30.7% Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? No +14.2% Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 1.0%? No +2.5% Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference? Yes +2.4% Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)? Yes +4.3% Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? No × Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? No × Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30? No +2.6% Trump re-sues WSJ by April 27? No +17.8% Will PLC win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election? Yes × DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? No × GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? No +3.0% Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? No +2.0% Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 21? No +3.3% Will the DHS shutdown end between April 17-20, 2026? No +15.6% Octra FDV above $200M one day after launch? No × Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? No +4.4% Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? Yes × Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 6, 2026? No +3.3% Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? Yes +20.5% Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? No +7.2% Will Waymo launch in Miami by June 30 2026? Yes +3.7% Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? No +2.1% Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14? No × Will Starmer say "U-Turn" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? No +27.4% Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 31, 2026? No +7.5% Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more? Yes × Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026? No +11.1% Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? Yes × Military action against Iran ends by May 31, 2026? No +3.1% Will Justin Bieber drop out as a Coachella 2026 Headliner? No +40.4% Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 56%? No +77.1% Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 59% and 60%? No +4.7% Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the April Meeting? Yes +21.2% Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 55%? No +20.0% Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%? No +190.3% Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March? No × Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% or more in March? No +11.4% Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in March 2026? No × US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? No × Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No +25.8% Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Yes × Clavicular charged again by June 30? No +24.2% Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? No +92.3% Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? No × Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 21, 2026? No +93.1% Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m? No × Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be between 65% and 70%? Yes +4.0% Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31? No +3.8% Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win 25-29 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election? Yes × Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be between 70% and 75%? No +4.0% Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? No +5.7% Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31? No +149.7% Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March? Yes × Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026? No +38.2% Will Iran strike the United Kingdom by March 31? No × Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by March 31? Yes +41.8% Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%? No +9.9% Will the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be between 14.2m & 14.4m square kilometers? Yes +41.8% Will Iran strike Bahrain again in March? Yes +3.4% Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%? No +7.0% Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 29, 2026? Yes +5.7% Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by March 31? No +11.1% Will USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by March 31? No +8.1% Will the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) close above 4750 on the final trading day of Q1 2026? Yes +2.8% Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 29, 2026? No ✓ Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in March? No ✓ Will Rami leave Babymonster? No +3.5% Will John Fetterman vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026? No +5.3% Iran leadership change by March 31? No +2.3% Another GTA VI trailer released by March 31? No +4.8% Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? No +11.7% Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? No ✓ Robinhood launches prediction market through MIAXdx by March 31? No +2.7% Will Apple release a new version of the Apple TV by March 31? No +2.8% Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by March 31? No +13.0% Avatar 4 greenlit by March 31? No ✓ Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? No ✓ Will Russia enter Serhiivka by March 31? No ✓ Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026? No +2.5% Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March? No +4.7% Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31? No × Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31? Yes +2.3% Will another country recognize Somaliland by March 31? No +2.8% Will gas hit (Low) $3.15 by March 31? No +3.6% Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31? No +5.8% Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31? No +10.5% Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? No ✓ Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31? No +2.3% Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March? No +6.1% Claude 4.7 released by March 31? No +6.4% Will Russia capture Bilytske by March 31, 2026? No +19.0% Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? No ✓ Will India strike Pakistan by March 31? No ✓ NATO Article 5 by March 31? No +2.6% Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? No +7.1% Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31? No +9.3% Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? No +40.6% Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026? Yes ✓ Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? No +2.2% Will Oro launch a token by March 31, 2026? No +3.1% Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in March? No +3.8% Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by March 31? No +2.4% Nothing Ever Happens: Ilhan Omar Nothing +2.9% Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by March 31? No +3.4% Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? No +7.6% Will Bernie Sanders vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026? No +11.7% US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? No +22.0% Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? No +6.3% Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? No +6.5% Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by March 31, 2026? No +3.6% Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? No +22.4% Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $4.00 end of March? Yes +13.0% Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31? Yes +2.1% Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $180 end of March? No +7.5% Will Meta (META) close above $560 end of March? Yes +17.0% Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31? No × Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026? No ✓ Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026? Yes ✓ Trump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026? Yes ✓ Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? No +13.0% Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 24, 2026? Yes +16.3% Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March? Yes × Will Trump say "Easter" in March? No +11.6% Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 20, 2026? Yes × Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,400 (LOW) in March 2026? No ✓ Will Iran strike Iraq again in March? Yes +8.8% Will Heather McPherson win the Canadian NDP Leadership election? No +18.3% Will Trump say "Rigged" or "Stolen" this week? (March 29) Yes × Will "Oil" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29) Yes +2.1% Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on March 26? No +58.7% Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be less than or equal to 2.4%? No +2.2% Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 24, 2026? No +2.7% Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? No +3.4% Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 24? No +3.8% Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on March 23? No +7.5% Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m? No × Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8.5m and 10m? No ✓ Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (March 22) No +9.3% Will XRP dip to $1.40 March 16-22? Yes +2.2% Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 22? Yes +3.5% Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 19, 2026? No ✓ Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary be between 2,200,000 and 2,400,000 voters? No +2.7% Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? No × Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 6.00% and 6.50%? No ✓ Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 9, 2026? No +124.7% Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Yes