Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31?

Mexican federal authorities (AG's office, President Sheinbaum) control any arrest/detention and have shown zero incentive or action toward it: they explicitly found insufficient evidence for provisional detention in early May and are conducting a slow sovereignty-first review. Rocha (Morena ally) took only a temporary leave, with no recent behavior indicating surrender or custody. Base rate for rapid arrest of a sitting governor on US extradition request is near-zero; deadline has now passed with no qualifying event per all reporting.

Market deadline of May 31 2026 11:59 PM ET has passed with no qualifying arrest/detention of Rocha (indictment + temporary leave only; Mexico explicitly declined provisional detention and no later custody reported). Rules explicitly exclude unexecuted warrants/indictments and require physical custody or equivalent; primary sources (DOJ, Mexican AG) plus consensus reporting confirm none occurred by cutoff. Analyst's Buy No recommendation aligns exactly with rules and evidence.

Market closed May 31 with No at 98.9¢ on $24k volume; smart-money whales (2 profitable, $1.3k stake, lifetime PnL >$180k) are 100% aligned on No. Price action shows Yes drifting lower (-7pp 1w, -11pp 1m) with no reversal. No credible news of arrest/detention by deadline; microstructure is clean consensus hold with tight implied spread and real volume supporting the 99%+ probability.