Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?

Iranian regime (Khamenei, presidential cyberspace committee, communications ministry) controls the switch and has clear incentive to keep full public access throttled amid active US/Israel military engagement, with recent behavior showing only elite phased access and no de-escalation signals in the last 90 days. Historical base rates of Iranian security-linked blackouts during tensions show they routinely last months, not days. With only 9 days left and strict criteria requiring sustained majority normal connectivity, the actors lack both incentive and demonstrated pattern to deliver the outcome by deadline.

The formal rules require either unambiguous consensus reporting of full majority access sustained 24h (explicitly excluding partial/filtered/government-controlled) OR both Cloudflare Radar outage annotation ceasing for 24 consecutive hours with traffic increase AND NetBlocks confirming resolved for majority. As of 22 May 2026, NetBlocks and Cloudflare data confirm the blackout (83rd day, ~1-2% connectivity) remains in force with only limited access for favored groups; no qualifying restoration has occurred or is imminent before the 31 May deadline. No rule-based path exists for a Yes resolution in the remaining window, so the oracle will resolve No.

Market priced at No 96.4% with $114k volume and 1m Yes price drop of 28.8pp shows real consensus forming on ongoing blackout; smart-money whale stake of $2,379 on No (0.88 confidence) aligns directly with Buy No thesis and recent NetBlocks/Cloudflare data confirm no full restoration. Thin liquidity or opposing flow absent, so microstructure supports riding the near-certain No to resolution.