This prediction was committed to a SHA-256 hash at call time. Anyone can verify the call was not changed after the fact.
Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 2026-04-12
fef475f0
Verifying…
echo -n "Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 2026-04-12" | shasum -a 256 | cut -c1-8The 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election occurred on April 12, 2026, and multiple credible sources, including Wikipedia citing NVI (valasztas.hu) and reports attributing to NVI, confirm final voter turnout at 79.55-79.6%, which falls within the 77-80% range qualifying for Yes resolution. Although processing of some votes is ongoing, turnout figures are already publicly reported from official sources, making Yes near-certain (>99% true probability) with minimal risk of revision outside the bracket. The 97¢ Yes price offers a small but actionable low-risk edge given the imminent resolution and high crowd agreement.
The market has already ended and the outcome is known. The web search results from [mti.hu](https://mti.hu/hirek/2026/04/12/valasztas-2026-reszveteli-arany-1830-ora-778-szazalek) and [origo.hu](http://gphirek.hu/belpol/2026/04/rekordmagas-reszveteli-arany-megerkeztek-a-legfrissebb-szamok) confirm the official 18:30 turnout was 77.8%, which is within the 77–80% bracket. However, the 'Yes' shares are priced at 97¢, leaving only a 3% edge. This is a trivial, near-zero-return arbitrage that does not meet the minimum threshold for a single-bet trade, especially given the market's high volume indicates sophisticated traders have already priced this in. The analyst's claimed edge is correct but far too small to be actionable.
The election occurred on April 12, 2026, with official NVI data confirming 77.8% turnout by 18:30. Final turnout is projected to land around 79%, safely within the 77-80% bracket. The 97% price leaves a 3% edge for resolution, which is acceptable given the near-certain outcome and imminent resolution timeline.
+2 more open picks · full 3-judge reasoning · Telegram premium channel.
Subscribe Now