Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

The appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States was denied by the CAFC in August 2025 and affirmed by SCOTUS on February 20, 2026, satisfying condition 1. No actual refunds have been issued as of April 15, 2026, despite two months post-mandate; news shows only expectations, lawsuits, and process uncertainty, with no CBP/Treasury announcements. The bureaucratic scale for thousands of importers makes timely refunds by June 30 unlikely (>80% prob No), creating a strong edge on No at 46%.

The analyst's core premise is correct—the market is mispriced—but they have recommended the wrong side. The web search results show the Supreme Court has already denied the Trump administration's appeal (the 'Learning Resources' decision on Feb 20, 2026) and a refund system is being implemented, with refunds expected to be processed imminently. This satisfies both conditions for a 'Yes' resolution well before the June 30 deadline.

Correction: {'trade': 'Buy Yes at $0.54', 'category': 'mispricing', 'reasoning': "The market is severely underpricing 'Yes'. The Supreme Court has already ruled against the administration's IEEPA tariffs ([mondaq.com](https://webiis10.mondaq.com/unitedstates/international-trade-investment/1768798/client-alert-update-on-ieepa-tariff-refunds)), and U.S. Customs is building a system to process refunds, with a target completion in mid-April 2026 ([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/business/us-customs-agency-says-tariff-refund-system-will-be-ready-45-days-2026-03-06)). The rules require refunds as a 'consequence' of the denied appeal, which is now established, and the system's launch will constitute actual refunds being issued.", 'risk': "The primary risk is bureaucratic delay causing the refund system to launch after June 30, 2026, but given the court's involvement and public timeline, this is unlikely."}