Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 21?

Current status confirms Starship Flight 12 has not launched and preparations are in early stages: Booster 19 was just stacked on Pad 2 on April 11 for testing, including a planned 33-engine static fire, with recent news (April 8) indicating delays to early May, after the April 21 deadline. No evidence of imminent launch; official targets and FCC windows align with May. True probability of No is near 100%, well above 80% threshold, with a small but actionable edge on No at 98% given the short 9-day horizon yielding high annualized return.

Recent statements from Elon Musk on April 3, 2026, indicate Starship Flight 12 is 4-6 weeks away, targeting early to mid-May, which is after the April 21 deadline. No subsequent updates suggest any acceleration or imminent launch preparations like stacking or static fires. The market's 98% No price undervalues the near-certainty of No resolution, offering a small edge with low risk over the short remaining timeframe.

As of April 12, 2026, Elon Musk has officially confirmed that Starship Flight 12 is delayed until May 2026 to accommodate the debut of the Version 3 hardware. With only 9 days remaining until the April 21 deadline and critical milestones like the 33-engine static fire and Wet Dress Rehearsal still pending, a launch within the window is physically and regulatorily impossible, making 'No' a near-certainty.