Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?

India's key decision-makers (Modi government and naval command) have zero demonstrated incentive or recent pattern (last 90 days) of routing warships through the narrow Hormuz strait itself; they continue routine escort operations only in the broader Gulf of Oman without the required narrow transit. No statements, deployments, or diplomatic signals in the past 30 days point to any sudden change before the May 31 deadline, and base rates for such a specific, high-visibility naval move in a 10-day window are near zero. This is a pure consensus No (98.7%) with no plausible actor able to flip the outcome in time, so ride it.

Rules require confirmed transit of Indian warships through the narrowest section of the Strait (between Iran and Oman); all reporting shows only Gulf of Oman escorts after merchant vessels exit, which is explicitly excluded. No official confirmation or consensus reporting of a qualifying transit exists since market open on May 6, and the 10-day window to deadline makes any sudden change implausible under the literal criteria. Consensus-priced No (98.7%) aligns with verifiable evidence gaps, satisfying the burden on Yes.

Market at 98.7¢ No with only $7.6K total volume since May 6 shows thin but unchallenged liquidity; Yes price drifted down 1.8pp over the past week on that volume, consistent with no India transit materializing. The single YES whale ($1 stake, rank 2248) is negligible and does not contradict the tape. No whale opposition or aggressive flow against No, so microstructure supports riding the consensus No to resolution.