Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?

The market is severely mispriced. The web search results from [foxnews.com](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gop-senator-vows-block-trumps-fed-chair-pick-unless-powell-probe-dropped), [tillis.senate.gov](https://www.tillis.senate.gov/2026/1/tillis-statement-on-the-nomination-of-kevin-warsh-for-federal-reserve-chairman), and [cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/30/fed-warsh-tillis-trump-powell-doj.html) confirm Senator Thom Tillis's unequivocal public statement that he 'will oppose the confirmation of any Federal Reserve nominee, including for the position of Chairman, until the DOJ’s inquiry into Chairman Powell is fully and transparently resolved.' This is a binding condition that makes a 'Yes' vote by him before the June 30, 2026 deadline highly improbable unless the DOJ probe is resolved, which is not indicated in current reports. The 'No' side priced at 14% offers a significant edge.

The market is severely mispriced at 86% Yes. Senator Tillis has made multiple explicit, public statements vowing to oppose any Fed nominee until the DOJ probe into Jerome Powell is resolved, stating 'there is nothing he could say that would change my position.' Since the probe is ongoing and unlikely to conclude by the June 30 deadline, Tillis will almost certainly vote No, or the nomination will stall/withdraw, all of which resolve to 'No'. Buying No at 14% offers a massive, near-certain edge.