Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?

The only reported US strike on Venezuela occurred on January 3, 2026, predating the market's opening on January 4, 2026, and thus does not qualify under the market's timeframe. Web searches confirm no subsequent qualifying drone, missile, or air strikes physically impacting Venezuelan terrestrial territory were credibly reported by the January 31, 2026 deadline. With the confirmation window (end of second day post-deadline) long passed and no consensus of credible reporting, the rules mandate resolution to No. At 90¢ No amid near-100% certainty and high-volume consensus, the 10% edge is actionable and low-risk.

Web searches confirm no US drone, missile, or air strikes on Venezuelan ground territory after the January 3, 2026 intervention and market open on January 4; all reports reference only the initial event, with later actions limited to Caribbean Sea vessels (excluded). The market end date of January 31, 2026, has passed without consensus credible reporting of a qualifying strike, triggering the explicit fallback rule to 'No' resolution. No at 90¢ is mispriced given near-certain No outcome (P>=99%), providing actionable edge on consensus side with no plausible flip events.