This prediction was committed to a SHA-256 hash at call time. Anyone can verify the call was not changed after the fact.
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? | No | 2026-01-31
b6f71929
Verifying…
echo -n "Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? | No | 2026-01-31" | shasum -a 256 | cut -c1-8The only reported US strike on Venezuela occurred on January 3, 2026, predating the market's opening on January 4, 2026, and thus does not qualify under the market's timeframe. Web searches confirm no subsequent qualifying drone, missile, or air strikes physically impacting Venezuelan terrestrial territory were credibly reported by the January 31, 2026 deadline. With the confirmation window (end of second day post-deadline) long passed and no consensus of credible reporting, the rules mandate resolution to No. At 90¢ No amid near-100% certainty and high-volume consensus, the 10% edge is actionable and low-risk.
The analyst's finding is inaccurate because it incorrectly states the deadline as January 31, 2026, with a fallback to No already triggered; the market question specifies strikes 'by December 31, 2026,' the timeframe starts from market open on January 4, 2026, and the market remains open as of May 9, 2026, with confirmation due by early January 2027. Web searches confirm the only US strikes were on January 3, 2026 (predating the market), with no credible reports of qualifying strikes on Venezuelan terrestrial territory afterward, and enrichment notes de-escalation efforts, but future risk persists until the actual deadline. High volume ($2.5M) and 90¢ No pricing reflect sophisticated consensus on low Yes probability, but the flawed deadline assumption undermines the claimed 'minimal risk' and immediate resolution edge.
Web searches confirm no US drone, missile, or air strikes on Venezuelan ground territory after the January 3, 2026 intervention and market open on January 4; all reports reference only the initial event, with later actions limited to Caribbean Sea vessels (excluded). The market end date of January 31, 2026, has passed without consensus credible reporting of a qualifying strike, triggering the explicit fallback rule to 'No' resolution. No at 90¢ is mispriced given near-certain No outcome (P>=99%), providing actionable edge on consensus side with no plausible flip events.
Category: Mispricing
{'cause_category': 'news_event_post_call', 'explanation': "A US Southern Command kinetic strike on a Tren de Aragua compound in Venezuela (killing leader Héctor 'Niño Guerrero' Rusthenford Flores) occurred in early June 2026 and was announced by Trump on June 12; this post-May 9 event triggered Yes resolution on June 14. The Jan 3 Maduro raid predated the market and did not count as 'another.'", 'references': ['https://www.npr.org/2026/06/12/nx-s1-5856611/u-s-military-kill-leader-tren-de-aragua', 'https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/13/trump-says-us-strike-killed-tren-de-aragua-gang-boss-with-venezuela-help'], 'key_lesson': 'Track all US kinetic strikes on Venezuelan soil through the full deadline, not just regime-change ops.', 'judge_model': 'x-ai/grok-4.3'}
+2 more open picks · full 3-judge reasoning · Telegram premium channel.
Subscribe Now