Will Oman send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?

Oman's government and Royal Navy of Oman have zero demonstrated incentive or recent pattern (last 90 days) of independent naval deployments through the narrow Strait section amid the current US-Iran tensions; Oman has instead acted as neutral mediator and rescuer of commercial crews. No statements, preparations, or allied pressure (Trump's calls targeted UK/France/Japan/SK, not Oman) exist to drive action in the remaining 10 days. Base rate of Omani warship transits in similar crises is near-zero, confirming the consensus-priced No outcome.

Rules require official Omani government/military confirmation or overwhelming credible reporting of an Omani warship transit through the narrowest section of the Strait (between Iran and Oman) after market open on 2026-05-06. No such confirmation, announcement, or reporting exists as of 2026-05-21; all regional naval activity references US/Indian/Pakistani assets only, with explicit notes that even those avoid the Strait proper. With 10 days remaining and zero signals of Omani action, no plausible rule-based path exists for Yes resolution.