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Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? | No | 2026-05-19
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echo -n "Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? | No | 2026-05-19" | shasum -a 256 | cut -c1-8Polls as of mid-March 2026 show Raffensperger polling at 9-11% in the RCP average (9.5%), third behind Jackson (23%) and Jones (19%), with 40% undecided, making his win probability around 5-10%, so Yes at 15% is slightly overpriced and No at 85% has a modest edge of ~5-10% ROI, but the analyst's claimed 85% edge and 'near-certain' language are grossly overstated and implausible. The market is roughly correctly priced given the polls and uncertainty, with no significant actionable mispricing right now. Time-adjusted return is acceptable but the finding's inaccuracy on edge size disqualifies it.
Recent polls (RCP average 9.5%, latest Emerson 11%) show Raffensperger trailing frontrunners Jackson (23%) and Jones (19%), confirming his true win probability is below the market's 15% Yes price, creating an edge on buying No at 85¢. With ~8 weeks until the May 19 primary, this offers attractive time-adjusted returns (>20% annualized equivalent) and meets the >=80% true probability threshold for No. The analyst overstates the edge at 85% and simplifies reasoning to 'lack of prominence,' but the trade recommendation is accurate and actionable based on current polling data.
Current polling from February 2026 shows Brad Raffensperger in a distant third place with approximately 9.5% to 10% support, trailing both Rick Jackson and Burt Jones by double digits. Given his high disapproval among the Republican base due to his 2020 election conduct and the fact that he is being significantly outspent by self-funding opponents, a 15% 'Yes' price is likely an overestimation of his true win probability, making 'No' a high-probability trade.
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