Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 25% and 30%?

Election occurred May 26; multiple independent sources (Ballotpedia, NPR, NBC, Texas Tribune) confirm Paxton 63.5-63.8% vs Cornyn 36.2-36.5%, producing a 27.3-27.6 point margin squarely inside the 25-30% bin with no recounts or disputes altering certified totals. No remaining human decision-makers or procedural steps can change the outcome. Market has passed its event date and the factual result matches the recommended Yes side at >95% certainty.

Rules define margin as absolute % difference between top two candidates using official Texas SOS totals (or overwhelming credible consensus); 63.8-36.2 produces 27.6% which falls squarely inside the 25-30 bin with no boundary tie or recount triggered. Ladder structure is satisfied because neighboring bins trade <2% and no evidence of certification disputes exists. Official results post-May 26 election are already reported by multiple sources and align exactly with the bin; no plausible rule-based flip remains before the Nov 30 fallback.

Market at 96¢ Yes with $20k+ volume and tight implied spreads shows real consensus post-election; smart-money whales (3 profitable on Yes, $691 stake, 0.81 confidence) aligned with no opposing flow from high-PnL addresses. Price action stable near 96% after minor drift, consistent with 27.6% margin already locked in official tallies—no thin-book or stale-price red flags.