Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?

Key actors (Netanyahu coalition, UTJ) have no incentive or capability to complete the multi-stage legislative process (preliminary reading already done; needs committee + 3 more readings + election date set) in the remaining 6 days; process has explicitly stalled since May 20-24 per recent reports. Base rate for rushed full dissolution in <1 week is near-zero. High-friction event; consensus-priced No at 98% is reliable.

Rules require full Knesset dissolution (all readings + final approval) by 11:59 PM ET May 31; only a preliminary 110-0 reading occurred May 20 with process stalled since, no official or consensus reporting of completion. Consensus No at 98%+ with no plausible flip event in remaining 6 days satisfies certainty bar and CONSENSUS EXCEPTION. Smart-money NO lean (0.98) aligns; no resolver updates override.

Market at 98¢ No with $95k volume, tight implied spread, and 1w Yes price drop of 10pp on the stalling news. Smart-money whales heavily concentrated on No ($2.9k vs $27 on Yes) with 0.98 alignment and no opposing flow. Microstructure fully consistent with near-certain No outcome in the final 6 days; consensus hold is clean.