Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?

Powell's statutory term as Chair ended May 15 with Warsh's Senate confirmation; he has already transitioned to Board member only (announced April, no reversal signals in last 30 days). Key actors (Powell, Trump admin, Senate) have zero incentive or procedural path to keep him in the Chair role past that date. Base rate of a confirmed successor being blocked or delayed after May 15 is near zero; market already at 93¢ reflects this behavioral reality.

Rules explicitly require actual vacating of the Chair role (not mere announcement or scheduled term end), and the May 15, 2026 term conclusion with Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation satisfies this per the enrichment block's factual summary and consensus reporting from CNN/NPR/WSJ. No temporary Chair service applies post-confirmation, and the event falls after market open (Apr 16) but before the May 31 11:59 PM ET cutoff. Primary sources or credible consensus are met, with no rule-based path to No and no plausible flip-event before resolution.