Will Trump visit China by May 15?

The AI analyst's finding is accurate: The White House officially announced President Trump's visit to China for May 14-15, 2026, for a summit with Xi Jinping, as confirmed by multiple credible sources including CNBC [web:0], Reuters [web:1], BBC [web:2], and others from late March 2026. No recent news (post-April 1, 2026) indicates cancellation, delay, or postponement of this specific trip, despite ongoing Iran tensions that may explain the recent Yes price drop from higher levels. Given the primary resolution sources (official US government info) still support the trip proceeding, the true probability of Yes is approximately 90-95%, well above the 80% threshold, providing a strong edge at current 60% pricing with low time to resolution.

The analyst correctly identifies the official May 14-15 summit date, making 'Yes' the highly probable outcome. However, live Polymarket data shows the price has already risen to ~71%, compressing the edge to ~15-20% rather than the claimed 35%. The prompt's 'Ends: 2026-03-31' is a metadata extraction error; the formal rules and live market confirm a May 15 deadline.

修正: {'trade': 'Buy Yes at ~71¢ (current market price)', 'category': '', 'reasoning': 'Official White House confirmation for May 14-15 strongly supports a Yes resolution, but the price has already moved from 60¢ to ~71¢, reducing the immediate edge. The trade remains valid with a high true probability (>85%), but the upside is lower than stated.', 'risk': 'Escalation in US-Iran tensions or a sudden diplomatic breakdown could trigger a last-minute postponement, resolving the market to No.'}