Cory Mills out as US Rep by May 31?

Mills himself has repeatedly refused to resign in the last 30 days and is actively legislating and seeking re-election; House leadership and the narrow GOP majority have zero incentive to force an expulsion vote that would create a vacancy and internal drama before May 31. The Ethics Committee probe remains in the subpoena/witness stage with no floor action or committee report scheduled, and procedural timelines for expulsion (2/3 vote) cannot be met in nine days. Base rates for rapid removal of a defiant member under similar pressure are near zero, locking in the consensus No outcome.

Rules require either (a) Mills ceasing to serve for any period by 5/31 or (b) an official announcement of resignation/removal before 5/31 (per explicit clause). No credible reporting or official source shows either; investigation remains early-stage with no scheduled floor vote or committee action by deadline, expulsion resolution stalled, and Mills continues legislating and refusing to resign. Default-No applies absent verifiable evidence by 5/31; no rule-based flip possible in remaining 9 days.

Low total volume ($9k since Apr 13) but no aggressive flow against No; 1w price action shows mild stabilization rather than drift away from 97% No. Smart-money whales lean No (though only 0.33 confidence, small stakes, no high-confidence opposition). Order-book spread and thin liquidity do not contradict the consensus hold, so microstructure is consistent with riding No to resolution.