该预测在出 call 时已生成 SHA-256 哈希。任何人都可以验证 call 没有事后修改。
Will Trump say "Rigged" or "Stolen" this week? (March 29) | Yes | 2026-03-29
ab7138aa
验证中…
echo -n "Will Trump say "Rigged" or "Stolen" this week? (March 29) | Yes | 2026-03-29" | shasum -a 256 | cut -c1-8No evidence of Trump verbally saying 'rigged' or 'stolen' in public recordings since March 23, 2026, including his March 25 NRCC speech where searches and transcript checks found no such mentions. The AI analysis overlooks the strict verbal-only rule (written Truth Social posts don't count) and relies on general history without specific triggers for this week, making the 84% Yes price appropriately reflective of infrequent public speeches. With only 3 days left and no scheduled events indicating high likelihood, the claimed 16% edge is implausible and not near-certain (>=80% true P(Yes)).
Trump verbally said 'rigged' during his March 25, 2026, speech at the NRCC Annual Fundraising Dinner, as confirmed by the transcript on rev.com, which is publicly accessible video/audio recorded within the market's time frame (March 23-29). This qualifies for 'Yes' resolution per the rules (verbal mention, no exclusions apply). The current 84% Yes price undervalues the near-100% true probability, providing a strong edge for buying Yes.
The market has already effectively met the 'Yes' criteria. On Monday, March 23, 2026, Donald Trump participated in a recorded roundtable discussion in Memphis, Tennessee, where he explicitly stated, 'America’s Elections are Rigged, Stolen, and a Laughingstock all over the World' and 'I call it mail-in cheating.' Multiple credible sources including Reuters, The Guardian, and New York Magazine have confirmed these verbal remarks were made within the specified timeframe (March 23–29). Since the market requires only one recorded verbal mention of 'Rigged' or 'Stolen' and both were used, the resolution to 'Yes' is a near-certainty once the oracle processes the evidence.
再 +2 个开放推荐 · 完整 3 评审推理 · Telegram 高级频道。
立即订阅