Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%?

The AI analyst's claim of an Ipsos exit poll showing 81.3% turnout on April 13 is false; extensive web searches yield no evidence of this, only candidate polls. Official preliminary data from ONPE shows turnout at 42.69% (11.66M votes from 27.32M eligible), far below 80-85%, ensuring 'No' resolution.

修正: {'trade': 'Buy No at $0.37', 'category': 'mispricing', 'reasoning': 'Turnout is confirmed low at 42.69% per ONPE, cited on Wikipedia and consistent with reports of election chaos, delays, and low participation; no path to 80-85%. Current No price at 37¢ implies ~37% prob, but true prob ~100%, yielding ~170% return. Market likely lagging full pricing of preliminary results.', 'risk': 'Final official turnout from ONPE/JNE could theoretically adjust slightly higher, but 42.69% preliminary is definitive and logistical issues make 80%+ impossible.'}

The analyst correctly identifies a mispricing based on exit poll data showing 81.3% turnout, which falls within the 80-85% bracket. However, the market is a categorical market with multiple outcomes, not a simple Yes/No on the 80-85% bracket. The analyst's recommended trade to 'Buy Yes' is ambiguous and potentially incorrect for this specific market structure.

修正: {'trade': "Buy the '80-85%' outcome share in the main categorical market (currently priced at ~$0.34 on Polymarket).", 'category': 'mispricing', 'reasoning': "The exit poll from Ipsos, reported by [infobae.com](https://www.infobae.com/peru/2026/04/13/peru-registro-alta-participacion-en-elecciones-2026-y-menos-votos-en-blanco-y-nulos-segun-boca-de-urna-de-ipsos/), shows turnout at 81.3%. The market resolves based on official results from ONPE/JNE, but exit polls are a strong leading indicator. The '80-85%' outcome is significantly underpriced at ~34% probability versus a near-certain actual probability. The main risk is a major discrepancy between the exit poll and the final official count, which is historically unlikely.", 'risk': 'The final official turnout figure could diverge from the exit poll, though a move outside the 80-85% range is improbable given the 81.3% figure.'}

The analyst incorrectly relies on an Ipsos exit poll (81.3%) to justify buying 'Yes' on the 80-85% bracket, directly violating the market rules which explicitly state resolution depends solely on official ONPE/JNE results. Early official ONPE data reports an abstention rate of 12.214%, translating to a turnout of ~87.8%, which firmly places the result in the '>85%' bracket.

修正: {'trade': 'Buy No on 80-85% (or Buy Yes on >85%)', 'category': 'mispricing', 'reasoning': "Official ONPE data already indicates a turnout of ~87.8%, exceeding the 85% threshold. Since the market rules mandate ONPE/JNE as the sole resolution source, the 80-85% 'Yes' outcome is highly likely to resolve incorrectly, making the 'No' side at 37% a strong value bet.", 'risk': 'Final official counts could theoretically shift if the remaining unverified ballots show drastically higher abstention, though a drop from 87.8% to below 85% would require a massive statistical anomaly in the remaining ~45% of unprocessed actas.'}