Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?

Recent RCP polling average (as of 3/17-3/23) shows Paxton leading Cornyn 45.5%-40.0% (+5.5%) in the runoff, with individual polls up to +8%, validating the analyst's ~7.5% Paxton lead claim. This renders a Cornyn win by 9%+ extremely unlikely (true Yes prob ~5% or less vs. market 12%), making No near-certain (>90% true prob) and the 10% edge actionable now with 8 weeks left. No contradictions in current data, low volume suggests mispricing persists.

Recent polls aggregated by RCP show Paxton leading Cornyn by 5.5% on average in the May 26 runoff, with individual polls ranging from tie to Paxton +8%, confirming the analyst's claim of Paxton leading by ~7.5%. This makes a Cornyn victory by 9% or more extremely unlikely (true prob ~5%), so No shares at 88¢ offer a strong edge with true prob of No >90%, well above 80% threshold. No contradicting news like endorsements or newer polls as of March 31, and low volume indicates persistent mispricing.

Current polling from March 2026 (Quantus and Impact Research) shows Ken Paxton leading John Cornyn by 8-16 points, and the primary results from March 3rd showed Cornyn leading by only 2 points. For Cornyn to win by 9% or more, he would need a massive 11-point swing from the primary results and a total reversal of all recent runoff polling, making the 'No' side at 88% ($0.88) a high-probability trade with a significant edge.