Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by May 31?

Trump has explicitly denied any direct contact with Mojtaba and questioned his survival; Mojtaba shows no public signals of engagement. No diplomatic infrastructure or recent (30-90 day) actions exist to enable a verified phone/video/in-person talk in the remaining 6 days. Base rate for such a direct leader-to-leader conversation amid active hostility is near zero; smart-money whales are correctly positioned on No.

Rules require direct verbal/in-person interaction (phone/video/in-person) confirmed by consensus of credible reporting by 11:59 PM ET May 31. No such interaction has occurred or been credibly reported since market open (Trump has repeatedly denied direct contact with Mojtaba and questioned his status; all reported diplomacy is with unnamed Iranian representatives/teams). With 6 days remaining and zero diplomatic signals of an imminent direct call/meeting, no credible reporting of a qualifying talk can materialize. Smart-money whales heavily on No; analyst thesis aligns with literal rules and evidence standard.

Market at 98.9¢ No with only $7.8k total volume but stable price action (1w Yes drift -0.6pp) and tight implied spread; smart money whales ($3.3k stake, lifetime PnL >$990k) overwhelmingly on No at 1.00 confidence with no opposing flow. No credible recent reporting of direct Trump-Mojtaba contact (Trump continues denying it and questioning Mojtaba's status) despite active Iran talks, so microstructure fully consistent with consensus hold on No through May 31.