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Services Down Parlay | No | 2026-03-31
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echo -n "Services Down Parlay | No | 2026-03-31" | shasum -a 256 | cut -c1-8The analyst's summary inaccurately claims no reported incidents across all services, as AWS has qualifying 'disrupted' events ongoing in ME-SOUTH-1 and ME-CENTRAL-1 regions since March 1, 2026, per the AWS Health Dashboard. However, official status histories confirm no Critical incidents for Discord or resolved Critical incidents for Cloudflare since February 11. With 4 days remaining, the joint probability of both occurring is negligible (<0.1%), rendering Yes at 12% severely overpriced and Buy No highly actionable with >99% true resolution probability.
The AI analysis claims 'no reported incidents' for AWS, Discord, and Cloudflare, but AWS experienced qualifying 'Disrupted' service interruptions on March 1-3, 2026, in Bahrain and UAE regions due to drone strikes, as confirmed on the AWS Health Dashboard. While the recommended Buy No trade remains viable given the extremely low probability of both Discord and Cloudflare experiencing Critical incidents in the remaining ~4 days (neither has had any since market open), the analysis is factually inaccurate and relies on an outdated or incomplete check of incident history, contradicting current web data.
As of March 27, 2026, there are only 4 days remaining for all three conditions to be met. While Cloudflare has already recorded a 'Critical' incident for the March 15 period according to Polymarket history, the AWS market for March 31 is currently trading at 23% and the Discord market at 32%. The joint probability of both AWS and Discord experiencing new critical/disrupted events in the next 96 hours is mathematically much lower than the 12% implied by the parlay price, especially with no current ongoing outages reported on their respective status pages.
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