Major US official out by May 31?

No key decision-maker (Trump, cabinet secretaries like Hegseth, congressional leaders, governors, or Joint Chiefs) shows incentive or recent pattern (last 90 days) of sudden exit; the sole March-April 2026 departures are already past and no new scandals, health issues, or firings are signaled. Institutional procedures and base rates make an unexpected resignation or removal in the final 11 days vanishingly rare absent a catalyst. Consensus-priced No at 84% aligns with stable behavior and lacks any actor capable of forcing a flip before deadline.

Rules require an actual departure, removal, or pre-deadline announcement by a listed official (Cabinet, Senator, Governor, etc.) between market open (Apr 27) and May 31 11:59 PM ET; no such event or credible announcement has occurred since the April 20 Labor Secretary exit (pre-market) and searches confirm zero May triggers. Consensus of reporting plus absence of catalysts meets the evidence standard for No, with default-No applying to any ambiguity. Analyst's Buy No side aligns exactly with literal criteria and 11-day window.

Smart money strongly aligned with No (3 whales $422 stake vs $18 on Yes, 0.93 confidence), consistent with 84¢ pricing and no aggressive flow against it. Total volume ~$20k since Apr 27 open plus 1w price action showing No stability (no drift toward Yes on rising volume) indicates real consensus rather than stale thin book. No whale opposition or thin-spread red flags; microstructure supports riding this near-certain hold to resolution.