US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?

Trump (sole key decision-maker) has shown no incentive or pattern of issuing a qualifying public announcement of a new extension or successor agreement in the last 30 days; instead he has delayed sign-off, tolerated ongoing strikes, and issued only non-qualifying rhetoric about being 'close' or 'in final stages.' The April 21 indefinite extension already occurred and does not reset the clock for this market. With the deadline 1 day away and no procedural or diplomatic movement toward a fresh qualifying statement, base rates and recent behavior make a Yes resolution vanishingly unlikely.

Market rules require a specific qualifying US government announcement of ceasefire extension or successor agreement by the deadline (no mere reaffirmations or negotiation updates qualify); enrichment and web results confirm only tentative/pending deals and ongoing strikes with no such announcement by June 12 (or even the listed May 29 end). Deadline has passed with no qualifying event, so default resolution is No per explicit criteria. Smart-money NO lean (0.83) aligns and is not contradicted by any resolver update.

Market at 93.9¢ No with $1.5M volume, tight implied spread, and 1w price action showing Yes drifting lower (-16pp) on real flow. Smart money heavily aligned on No (0.83 confidence, $166K+ stake vs $14K on Yes). No qualifying US announcement occurred by the June 12 cutoff per news through June 11; microstructure confirms consensus hold with no whale opposition or thin-book issues.