Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2026?

Key decision-makers (Pezeshkian, Ghalibaf, Khamenei) show no recent (last 30 days) movement toward removal despite April rumors; Araghchi remains visibly active in diplomacy through May 15 BRICS talks and ongoing shuttles. Incentives favor continuity amid fragile ceasefire negotiations rather than disruptive cabinet change in the final 11 days. Base rate of mid-crisis FM ousters in Iran is near-zero, and no procedural or behavioral signals indicate action before deadline.

The resolution rules require either an official announcement of resignation/removal (effective immediately for Yes) or consensus credible reporting of detention/effective removal before the May 31 deadline; no such announcement or reporting exists as of May 20 and the enrichment summary confirms Araghchi remains actively engaged in diplomacy through mid-May with zero credible signals of imminent action. The market wording explicitly defaults to No absent qualifying evidence, and the 11-day window plus absence of any resolver update or prior serial-market precedent for rapid dismissal leaves no plausible rule-based path to Yes. This is a high-certainty consensus No (97.7¢) with no flip-event risk, satisfying the >=90% bar for the recommended side.